Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Nom, Nom, Nom

The Oscar nominations are in and before you can say “And the Oscar goes to…” we’ll have the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards on Sunday the 21st, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards on Wednesday the 24th and from then on a nonstop avalanche of announcements until the 93rd Academy Awards on April 25th.

Despite earning the most nominations, and the only film to break double digits, Mank is statistically in last place. With no editing or screenplay nominations its chances in the preferential ballot era or any era, for that matter, are almost none. You’d have to go all the way back to 1948’s Hamlet to find a film that won Best Picture without at least one of those nominations (film editing as a category didn’t come along until 1934). Even more, since the preferential ballot and the expanded Best Picture lineup began with the films of 2009, no film has won Best Picture without at least a screenplay, director and/or editing win. 2015’s Spotlight just scraped by with a win in Original Screenplay as its only other Oscar and Mank can’t even do that.

Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards preview and predictions

The WGA and the PGA will narrow down the Best Picture race, which right now is between The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Minari and Promising Young Woman. All eyes will be on the WGA battle between Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman. Whoever wins there is almost assured to win the Oscar, adding to its chances for a Best Picture triumph. Nomadland isn’t nominated at WGA (nor is Minari, neither was eligible) but it will sail to an easy win in Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Funny thing is; if Chicago 7 wins this WGA this weekend, its BP chances increase despite Aaron Sorkin’s director snub and it becomes a closer two-way race with Nomadland. If PYW wins, it opens the door for Nomadland to win BP with little actual competition. Yesterday on Twitter I pontificated that Nomadland stands a chance to win all six of its nominations, including what would be a history-making four for director Chloé Zhao (she’ll actually make history with three). Interestingly, it would be the biggest haul since 2009’s The Hurt Locker (the first and still only time a woman has won Best Director) and be the first full sweep in 17 years since 2003’s Return of the King. It’s a stretch, to be sure, but it is a frontrunner in at least four of them so maybe not that far off.

Best Actor is about as locked as we’re going to get on Oscar night so I won’t be wavering from Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I probably wouldn’t even if Anthony Hopkins (The Father) won SAG. Ma Rainey missing Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay when Boseman has been the locked in frontrunner for some time was definitely a surprise (The Father got both), and he’ll become the first Best Actor winner in a non-BP nominee since Jeff Bridges in 2009’s Crazy Heart.

Best Actress was probably the easiest category to predict the nominees in but who will win is a bit more difficult. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) already lost the Golden Globe to Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), which opened the door for her nomination, and then got snubbed at BAFTA. Mulligan will need SAG to find herself out in front (where Day isn’t nominated) but if Frances McDormand (Nomadland) were to win there she could be well on her way to her third Best Actress Oscar.

While I think most of us feel that Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) has Supporting Actor locked up, Supporting Actress is quite the contest. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) is the only nominee to hit all four precursors in this exceptional year (those BAFTA juries), with a small asterisk to her Golden Globe nomination in lead. It feels like a clear battle between two Oscar newcomers in Bakalova and Minari‘s Youn Yuh-jung in two performances and films that couldn’t be more opposite. As both women are competing against each at SAG and BAFTA, those will tell the story. What if they split? I’ll probably give the edge to the SAG winner in this case but we’ve seen so many different scenarios when/if the race, especially in this category, starts to split. 2007 was a famous year where Amy Ryan won BFCA, Ruby Dee won SAG, Tilda Swinton won BAFTA and then swooped in for the Oscar. Another famous year, 1996, Joan Allen won BFCA (they only had winners until 2001), acting legend Lauren Bacall won SAG and was all but locked for the Oscar until Juliette Binoche, in the Best Picture winner, snatched it away from her. What favors Bakalova is that since that Amy Ryan win, every BFCA supporting actress winner has gone on to win the Oscar too (save Kate Winslet in The Reader, who was nominated and won in lead at the Oscars); that’s 11 in a row. It’s a tough call, made especially so by the two women in front also being the two critics’ leaders all season in this category and both more than deserving.

I expect some wealth spreading in the below the line categories with places for Sound of Metal, Mank and even Hillbilly Elegy to thrive. Soul should be able to glide to dual wins, in Animated Feature and Original Score. In the era of the entire membership voting, that simply benefits a Disney/Pixar film. Same goes for International Feature Film, where Another Round should be the frontrunner. In the years where only the FLF/IFF branch voted on nominees and winners I could see Quo Vadis, Aida? winning. Documentary is the same, playing to the widest base of the membership that has seen the films and that favors Time and Collective for urgency and timeliness but with something like My Octopus Teacher being beloved, on Netflix and very much a spoiler here.

Here’s what’s coming up for guild awards in the next two weeks: WGA (3/21), PGA (3/24), MUAH (4/3), SAG (4/4), VES (4/6).

Here are my ranked Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for March 19, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE, MPSE
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CSA, DGA, MPSE, WGA
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

3. Minari (A24) – SAG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE
Christina Oh, Producer

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA, Spirit First Feature plus ACE, CAS, CSA, MPSE, WGA
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, GG
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA plus CSA, CDG, WGA
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers

8. Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, MPSE, MUAH, VES
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DIRECTOR

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
2. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, DGA, GG, Spirit
3. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
4. David Fincher for Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, DGA, GG
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – BAFTA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, BAFTA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
4. Steven Yeun in Minari (A24) – BFCA, SAG, Spirit
5. Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
3. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BFCA, GG
4. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit 
5. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, Spirit
2. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG
4. Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BFCA, GG, SAG
5. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible)
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

3. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA
Screenplay by Kemp Powers

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

5. The White Tiger (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA
Written by Emerald Fennell

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA
Written by Aaron Sorkin

3. Minari (A24) – BFCA (WGA ineligible)
Written by Lee Isaac Chung

4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, WGA
Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – WGA
Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

FILM EDITING

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Alan Baumgarten

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – ACE (comedy), BAFTA
Frédéric Thoraval

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BAFTA
Sean Bobbitt

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ASC
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Ann Roth

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Trish Summerville

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BFCA, CDG
Bina Daigeler

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, MUAH
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

5. Emma.(Focus Features) – BFCA
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Emile Mosseri

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
James Newton Howard

5. Da 5 Bloods  (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL
Terence Blanchard

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
 (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

2. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
 (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

3. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
 (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

4. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
 (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
 (Netflix) – GG, HMMA
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

2. Greyhound (Apple TV+) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

3. Soul (Walt Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

4. Mank (Netflix) – CAS, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA, VES
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

4. The One and Only Ivan (Walt Disney Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA, VES
Ivan Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Pete Docter and Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

3. Onward (Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

4. Over the Moon (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix) – Annie, BFCA
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Time (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, CEH, IDA, PGA, Spirit
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

2. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, Spirit
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

3. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix) – BAFTA, DGA, PGA
Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

4. Crip Camp (Netflix) – BFCA, IDA, Spirit
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas Venures) – Spirit
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (NEON/SUPER LTD) – BAFTA, Spirit
3. Collective (Romania) (Magnolia Pictures) – BFCA
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)
5. Better Days (Hong Kong) (Well Go USA)

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow
Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat

2. If Anything Happens I Love You
Will McCormack and Michael Govier

3. Genius Loci
Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise

4. Opera
Erick Oh

5. Yes-People 
Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Hunger Ward
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

2. Do Not Split
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

3. Colette
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

4. A Love Song for Latasha
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

5. A Concerto Is a Conversation
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Two Distant Strangers
Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

2. The Letter Room
Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

3. Feeling Through
Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

4. White Eye
Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

5. The Present
Farah Nabulsi

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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