Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Post-Shortlist Holiday Extravaganza in All 23 Categories
The holidays are upon and that can only mean one thing, to awards watchers that is, Oscar shortlists. AMPAS came down in their gilded sleigh to drop some presents for the movies that have been good (subjective) this year and coal in those that were bad (also subjective).
As expected, the duo of Barbie and Oppenheimer did well, as did Killers of the Flower Moon and even Napoleon (showing up on three lists). Seven songs from three movies and a perennial Diane Warren selection dominated the fifteen shortlisted original songs, which saw some pretty big snubs (Bruce Springsteen, Justin Timberlake, “Peaches,” everything from The Little Mermaid and Wonka), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in makeup and Kokomo City in doc feature, among others. Nyad failed big time with no shortlist mentions at all but on the flip side for Netflix, Society of the Snow showed up in three.
With the majority of critics’ groups offering up wins or at least nominations, frontrunners have begun to take hold. Killers of the Flower Moon has the most Best Picture wins so far but Christopher Nolan is the far away leader in Best Director for Oppenheimer. His leading man, Cillian Murphy, has pulled ahead in Best Actor as has antagonist co-star Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has the longest lead of any acting contender but Rachel McAdams in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. is giving her some chase. McAdams failed to earn a Golden Globe or Critics Choice nom, however, making her still an outside player for a nomination but would be a passion pick. There are few changes from this month’s predictions but that’s what Frontrunner Friday is for, gauging the ebb and flow as it’s happening.
There will be a quiet before the storm as the holidays will offer a brief respite before January brings us a deluge of the real stuff, the industry nominations. The first week will kick off with makeup, costume design and set decorators guilds, as well as the BAFTA longlists. Week two will be the big one: actors, directors and producers with SAG, DGA and PGA nominations, respectively. BAFTA nominations won’t be here until January 18, two days after Oscar nomination voting closes, which is a great thing. Unlike most years, they won’t have any impact on late Oscar voters who might feel like being too name-checky. Oscar nominations will be revealed on January 23, 2024.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards on Friday, December 22, 2023.
Best Picture
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
- The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
- American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG
- Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG
- The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG
- Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG
Next up: Air (Amazon Studios) – GG; The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – CCA; May December (Netflix) – GG; Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – CCA; Society of the Snow (Netflix); Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
Director
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – GG
- Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA
- Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – GG
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
- Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Next up: Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures); Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS); Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros); Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix); Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Best Actor
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
- Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – GG
- Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – GG
- Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest (A24)
- Zac Efron – The Iron Claw (A24)
Next up: Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario (A24) – GG, Adam Driver – Ferrari (NEON), Anthony Hopkins – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics), Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), David Strathairn – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Kôji Yakusho – Perfect Days (NEON), Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24)
Best Actress
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
- Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – CCA, GG
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG
- Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
- Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – GG
- Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix) – GG
- Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix) – GG
- Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla (A24) – GG
Next up: Phoebe Dynevor – Fair Play (Netflix), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin (NEON), Jane Levy – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves (MUBI) – GG, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Charles Melton – May December (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
- Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
- Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – GG
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA
- Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
Next up: Jamie Bell – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures), Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios), Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films), John Magaro – Past Lives (A24), Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24), Peter Sarsgaard – Memory (Ketchup Entertainment)
Supporting Actress
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
- Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix) – CCA, GG
- America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA
- Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – GG
- Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. (Lionsgate)
- Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
Next up: Erika Alexander – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion), Juliette Binoche – The Taste of Things (IFC Films), Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON), Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios), Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (A24)
Adapted Screenplay
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
- American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett
- All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
- The Zone of Interest (A24) – Jonathan Glazer (based on the book by Martin Amis)
- Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) – Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume)
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics)
- Priscilla (A24) – Sofia Coppola (based on the autobiography by Priscilla Presley and Sandra Harmon)
- Society of the Snow (Netflix) – J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
Next up: The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman); Ferrari (NEON) – Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates); The Taste of Things (IFC Films) – Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe)
Original Screenplay
- Barbie (Warner Bros) – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
- The Holdovers (Focus Features) – David Hemingson
- Past Lives (A24) – Celine Song
- Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Justin Triet and Arthur Harari
- May December (Netflix) – Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
- Maestro (Netflix) – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
- Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Emerald Fennell
- Air (Amazon Studios) – Alex Convery
- The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – Hayao Miyazaki
- Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Next up: Fair Play (Netflix) – Chloe Domont; The Iron Claw (A24) – Sean Durkin; Origin (NEON) – Ava DuVernay; Rustin (Netflix) – Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black, story by Julian Breece
Film Editing
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Jennifer Lame
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Thelma Schoonmaker
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
- Barbie (Warner Bros) – Nick Houy
- Maestro (Netflix) – Michelle Tesoro
- Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Laurent Sénéchal
- The Zone of Interest (A24) – Paul Watts
- American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) – Hilda Rasula
- The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Kevin Tent
- Ferrari (NEON) – Pietro Scalia
Next up: Air (Amazon MGM Studios) – William Goldenberg; The Creator (20th Century Studios) – Hank Corwin, Joe Walker and Scott Morris ; The Killer (Netflix) – Kirk Baxter; Society of the Snow (Netflix) – Jaume Marti; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – Michael Andrews
Cinematography
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Rodrigo Prieto
- Maestro (Netflix) – Matthew Libatique
- The Zone of Interest (A24) – Łukasz Żal
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Robbie Ryan
- El Conde (Netflix) – Edward Lachman
- Ferrari (NEON) – Erik Messerschmidt
- Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – Linus Sandgren
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – Dariusz Wolski
- The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Dan Laustsen
Next up: Barbie (Warner Bros) – Rodrigo Prieto; El Conde (Netflix) – Edward Lachman; Ferrari (NEON) – Erik Messerschmidt; Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – Dariusz Wolski; Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – Linus Sandgren
Production Design
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Zsuzsa Mihalek (set decorator)
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
- Barbie (Warner Bros) – Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
- Maestro (Netflix) – Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)
- Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Adam Stockhausen (production designer)
- The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Paul D. Austerberry (production designer), Larry Dias (set decorator)
- Ferrari (NEON) – Maria Djurkovic (production designer), Sophie Phillips (set decorator)
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – Arthur Max (production designer), Elli Griffk (set decorator)
- Wonka (Warner Bros) – Nathan Crowley (production designer), Lindy Hemming (set decorator)
Next up: Air (Amazon MGM Studios) – François Audouy (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator); Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret. (Lionsgate) – Steve Saklad (production designer), Selina van den Brink (set decorator); Beau Is Afraid (A24) – Fiona Crombie (production designer), Laurent Déry-Lauzier (set decorator); Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures) – Karen Murphy (production designer), Lotty Sanna (set decorator); The Creator (20th Century Studios) – James Clyne (production designer), Claire Levinson-Gendler (set decorator); The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Ryan Warren Smith (production designer), Markus Wittman (set decorator); Priscilla (A24) – Tamara Deverell (production designer), Patricia Cuccia (set decorator); Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – Suzie Davies (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator); The Taste of Things (IFC Films) – Toma Baqueni (production designer), TBA (set decorator); The Zone of Interest (A24) – Chris Oddy (production designer), Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (set decorators)
Costume Design
- Barbie (Warner Bros) – Jacqueline Durran
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Holly Waddington
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Jacqueline West
- The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
- Maestro (Netflix) – Mark Bridges
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Ellen Mirojnick
- Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures) – Oliver Garcia;
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – David Crossman and Janty Yates;
- Priscilla (A24) – Stacey Battat
- Wonka (Warner Bros.) – Lindy Hemming
Next up: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. (Lionsgate) – Ann Roth; Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Milena Canonero; Ferrari (Neon) – Massimo Cantini Parrini; The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Lionsgate) – Trish Summerville ; The Zone of Interest (A24) – Malgorzata Karpiuk
Original Score (full shortlist ranking)
- Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
- Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Daniel Pemberton (Sony Pictures) – CCA, GG, HMMA
- Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
- The Boy and the Heron – Joe Hisaishi (GKIDS) – GG, SCL
- The Zone of Interest – Mica Levi (A24) – GG, HMMA, SCL
- Society of the Snow – Michael Giacchino (Netflix) – CCA
- Elemental – Thomas Newman (Walt Disney/Pixar) – HMMA
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams (Walt Disney)
- American Fiction – Laura Karpman (Amazon MGM Studios) – HMMA, SCL
- Barbie – Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (Warner Bros)
- The Holdovers – Mark Orton (Focus Features)
- Saltburn – Anthony Willis (Amazon MGM Studios) – HMMA, SCL
- American Symphony – Jon Batiste (Netflix) – SCL
- The Color Purple – Kris Bowers (Warner Bros)
Original Song (full shortlist ranking)
- “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas from Barbie (Warner Bros) – GG, HMMA, SCL
- “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt from Barbie (Warner Bros) – GG, HMMA, SCL
- “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz from Rustin (Netflix) – GG, HMMA, SCL
- “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (Netflix) – SCL
- “The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren from Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures) – HMMA, SCL
- “Keep It Movin’” by by Halle Bailey, Denisia Andrews, Brittany Coney, and Morten Ristorp from The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – HMMA
- “Am I Dreaming” by Leland Wayne, Rakim Mayers, Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Landon Wayne from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – HMMA
- “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songs and Snakes by Dan Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo – HMMA, SCL
- “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson, and Andrew Wyatt from Barbie (Warner Bros)
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” by Osage Tribal Singers from Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
- “Quiet Eyes” by Zach Dawes and Sharon Von Etten from Past Lives (A24) – HMMA
- “Superpower” by Terius Gesteelde-Diamant from The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (Focus Features)
- “High Life” by John Carney and Gary Clark from Flora and Son (Apple Original Films) – HMMA
- “Meet In The Middle” by John Carney and Gary Clark from Flora and Son (Apple Original Films)
Sound (full shortlist ranking)
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
- Maestro (Netflix)
- Ferrari (NEON)
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
- The Zone of Interest (A24)
- The Killer (Netflix)
- Barbie (Warner Bros)
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- The Creator (20th Century Studios)
Makeup and Hairstyling (full shortlist ranking)
- Maestro (Netflix)
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Beau Is Afraid (A24)
- Golda (Bleecker Street)
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
- The Last Voyage of the Demeter (Universal Pictures)
- Ferrari (NEON)
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Visual Effects (full shortlist ranking)
- The Creator (20th Century Studios)
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel/Walt Disney)
- Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Godzilla Minus One (Toho)
- Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Spider-Man: Across the Universe (Sony Pictures)
- Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Rebel Moon: Part One – Child of Fire (Netflix)
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Walt Disney)
Animated Feature
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – CCA, GG
- The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – CCA, GG
- Elemental (Pixar) – CCA, GG
- Nimona (Netflix) – CCA
- Robot Dreams (NEON)
- Wish (Walt Disney) – CCA, GG
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount Pictures) – CCA
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
- Suzume (Crunchyroll) – GG
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures) – GG
Next up: Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS), The Inventor (Blue Fox), Leo (Netflix), Migration (Universal Pictures), The Peasants (Sony Pictures Classics), They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Pictures Classics), Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Documentary Feature (full shortlist ranking)
- American Symphony (Netflix) – CCA, PGA
- 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS) – CCA, CEH, PGA
- Four Daughters (Kino Lorber) – CEH
- Beyond Utopia (Roadside Attractions) – CCA, PGA
- The Eternal Memory (MTV Documentary Films) – CCA, CEH
- Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Original Films) – CCA, CEH
- A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, IDA
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President (National Geographic) – IDA
- Apolonia, Apolonia (CAT & Docs) – IDA
- 32 Sounds (Abramorama) – CEH
- Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) – CCA
- To Kill a Tiger (National Board of Canada)
- In the Rearview (Film Movement)
- Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Zeitgeist Films/Kino Lorber)
International Feature Film (full shortlist ranking)
- The Zone of Interest (UK) – CCA, GG
- Society of the Snow (Spain) – CCA, GG
- The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
- Fallen Leaves (Finland) – GG
- Perfect Days (Japan) – CCA
- 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
- The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
- Tótem (Mexico)
- The Taste of Things (France) – CCA
- The Promised Land (Denmark)
- Io Capitano (Italy) – GG
- Amerikatsi (Armenia)
- The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
- Four Daughters (Tunisia)
- Godland (Iceland)
Animated Short Film (full shortlist ranking)
- Once Upon a Studio
- Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
- Pachyderme
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Humo (Smoke)
- Pete
- 27
- I’m Hip
- A Kind of Testament
- Eeva
- Boom
- Wild Summon
- Our Uniform
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Documentary Short Film (full shortlist ranking)
- The Last Repair Shop
- Deciding Vote
- If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
- Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
- Last Song from Kabul
- Between Earth & Sky
- Camp Courage
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- How We Get Free
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Oasis
- Wings of Dust
- How We Get Free
- Island in Between
- BearNǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Live Action Short Film (full shortlist ranking)
- The Anne Frank Gift Shop
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- The After
- Knight of Fortune
- Invisible Border
- Strange Way of Life
- The One Note Man
- The Shepherd
- Dead Cat
- Yellow
- An Avocado Pit
- Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
- Good Boy
- Invincible
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