Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: SAG leak, right ahead!

The 27th Screen Actors Guild Awards are this Sunday but with SAG opting for a one-hour, pre-taped show in which all nominees know the winners days in advance, the pundit world has been feverishly awaiting who will be the leaker of the winners.

Yesterday, April 1, was the evening of the taped reveals of the film winners and it didn’t help that it was April Fool’s Day as every fool had their day, dropping “hints” with cryptic gifs, movie forums boards full of “I have it on good authority” assurance that their list of winners is indeed the real one. Guess what, nobody knows anything. Yet.

While there is a small chance that a leak springs up between now and Sunday, be it from an eager publicist on Twitter or an over-eager pup on Instagram, the prospects are pretty small. After all, this isn’t like the year that SAG themselves accidentally tipped off some of the winners in the backend of their website and it got found out by an intrepid group of movie forums sleuths. Wouldn’t know anything about that, couldn’t be me.

SAG Awards Predictions (Film): The actress categories hold the key to Oscar success

Anyway, there hasn’t been anything substantial since the Producers Guild last week to alter this week’s Oscar predictions. The Makeup and Hair Stylists Guild (MUAH) announces on Saturday, making for a fun fight between Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Hillbilly Elegy and Pinocchio. SAG is Sunday and while the two male actor categories seem very locked up, the female categories will most definitely impact their respective Oscar races. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) needs SAG to remain the de facto frontrunner, if she even is, but Frances McDormand (Nomadland) could easily swoop in and earn a history-making third win there.

The supporting actress race is far more competitive and far more interesting in terms of tracking. The SAG-to-Oscar ratio here is pretty strong. For the last 11 years, the SAG winner for Female Actor in a Supporting Role has gone onto to win the Oscar (if they’ve been nominated, sorry Emily Blunt). Looking at the full history, only four times ever has the eventual Oscar winner in this category been SAG-nominated and lost to another Oscar nominee in this category (an important distinction here) so whoever wins on Sunday, and the fight seems to be between Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung, is almost undeniably going to be your Oscar winner.

Coming up next week are the Visual Effects Society (VES) awards on the 6th and then a big weekend with the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and two nights of BAFTA on the 10th and 11th, respectively.

Here are my ranked Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for April 2, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE, MPSE
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers

3. Minari (A24) – SAG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE
Christina Oh, Producer

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CSA, DGA, MPSE, WGA
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA, Spirit First Feature plus ACE, CAS, CSA, MPSE, WGA
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, GG
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA plus CSA, CDG, WGA
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers

8. Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, MPSE, MUAH, VES
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DIRECTOR

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
2. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, DGA, GG, Spirit
3. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
4. David Fincher for Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, DGA, GG
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – BAFTA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
4. Steven Yeun in Minari (A24) – BFCA, SAG, Spirit
5. Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BFCA, GG
3. Frances McDormand in Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
4. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
5. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG*, SAG (*in lead)
2. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, Spirit
3. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BFCA, GG, SAG
5. Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible)
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA
Screenplay by Kemp Powers 

5. The White Tiger (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, WGA
Written by Emerald Fennell

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA
Written by Aaron Sorkin

3. Minari (A24) – BFCA (WGA ineligible)
Written by Lee Isaac Chung

4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, WGA
Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – WGA
Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

FILM EDITING

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Alan Baumgarten

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – ACE (comedy), BAFTA
Frédéric Thoraval

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BAFTA
Sean Bobbitt

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ASC
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA, SDSA
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – ADG, BFCA, SDSA
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Ann Roth

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Trish Summerville

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BFCA, CDG
Bina Daigeler

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, MUAH
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

5. Emma.(Focus Features) – BFCA
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Emile Mosseri

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
James Newton Howard

5. Da 5 Bloods  (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL
Terence Blanchard

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

2. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashwort

3. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se) (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

4. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
 (Netflix) – GG, HMMA
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

2. Greyhound (Apple TV+) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

3. Soul (Walt Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

4. Mank (Netflix) – CAS, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA, VES
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

4. The One and Only Ivan (Walt Disney Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA, VES
Ivan Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Pete Docter and Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

3. Onward (Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

4. Over the Moon (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix) – Annie, BFCA
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix) – BAFTA, DGA, PGA
2. Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, CEH, IDA, PGA, Spirit
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

3. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, Spirit
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

4. Crip Camp (Netflix) – BFCA, IDA, Spirit
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas Venures) – Spirit
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (NEON/SUPER LTD) – BAFTA, Spirit
3. Collective (Romania) (Magnolia Pictures) – BFCA
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)
5. Better Days (Hong Kong) (Well Go USA)

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow
Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat

2. If Anything Happens I Love You
Will McCormack and Michael Govier

3. Genius Loci
Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise

4. Opera
Erick Oh

5. Yes-People 
Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Hunger Ward
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

2. Do Not Split
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

3. Colette
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

4. A Concerto Is a Conversation
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

5. A Love Song for Latasha
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Two Distant Strangers
Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

2. The Letter Room
Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

3. Feeling Through
Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

4. White Eye
Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

5. The Present
Farah Nabulsi