Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The Category Circus Cavalcade

This is why Frontrunner Friday is crucial as we really get into awards season. Nary a few days can go by without a new set of nominations or awards or a category switcharoo. This week, we’ve got ’em all.

Just a few weeks ago word came down from the mountain about Belfast category placements that put all of the adult cast in supporting, leaving newcomer Jude Hill as the film’s sole lead. This week we got a big surprise from Searchlight Pictures, which is pushing Rooney Mara, not Cate Blanchett, as the lead actress of Nightmare Alley. Two-time Oscar winner Blanchett will now compete in supporting alongside Toni Collette and, based on the novel, probably stands a much better chance at getting a nod in this category than her co-star. That is, if she doesn’t directly compete against herself in Don’t Look Up, which, still unseen, could be a much smaller role and not really factor negatively against her. I know this, it doesn’t help Mara one bit.

Since the last Frontrunner Friday (before official October predictions) the wave of early critic, guild and industry nominations began rolling in. The Gotham Awards gave lots of love to Passing and The Lost Daughter, Belfast led the BIFA noms (while being shocking snubbed in Best Film, Director and Screenplay), the Hollywood Music in Media Awards gave love to the songs and scores from Don’t Look Up, CODA and more and the International Documentary Association (IDA) revealed their doc shortlists, giving boosts to Ascension, Flee and Summer of Soul.

Audience awards from the fall festivals started rolling in, too, with Belfast (Toronto, Mill Valley Overall, Newport Beach, Montclair, Twin Cities), King Richard (Heartland, Film Fest 919, Philadelphia), Flee (Biografilm, Montclair, Nordisk, Nyon Visions du Réel) and C’mon C’mon (Mill Valley US, Film Fest 919) taking prizes left and right. Speaking of Belfast, Focus Features also dropped its FYC for the film and missing from it was the score by Van Morrison. While the score is minimal in the film and period songs heavy, the new music rules that lower the percentage of original score requirements (from 60% to 35%) seemed enough to qualify but perhaps it does not.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for November 5, 2021.

BEST PICTURE
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
6. Spencer (NEON)
7. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
9. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
10. Flee (NEON)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
5. Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)

BEST ACTOR
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
4. Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (A24)
5. Clifton Collins, Jr. – Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON)
2. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
3. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
5. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
4. Timothy Spall – Spencer (NEON)
5. Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix)
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix)
3. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix)
4. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films)
5. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) [UPDATE: Amazon Studios has changed the category placement to Original so I’ll pop Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures) here]

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features)
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UA)
3. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24)
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros)
5. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix)

FILM EDITING
1. Dune – Joe Walker (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Belfast – Úna Ni Dhonghaile (Focus Features)
3. King Richard – Pamela Martin (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras (Netflix)
5. Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin (Netflix)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Dune – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner (Netflix)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel (A24/Apple)
4. Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos (Focus Features)
5. Spencer – Claire Mathon (NEON)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Dune – Patrice Vermotte, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh (A24/Apple)
3. Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (Searchlight Pictures)
4. The French Dispatch – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo (Searchlight Pictures)
5. The Power of the Dog – Grant Major, Amber Richards (Netflix)

COSTUME DESIGN
1. Dune – Jacqueline West (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Nightmare Alley – Luis Siqueira (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Spencer – Jacqueline Durran (NEON)
4. Cruella – Jenny Beavan (Walt Disney)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Mary Zophres (A24/Apple Original Film)

MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dune – Hans Zimmer (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Spencer – Jonny Greenwood (NEON)
3. The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood (Netflix)
4. The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell (Netflix)

MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. “Believe” from The Rescue (NatGeo)
5. “Automatic Woman” from Bruised (Netflix)

SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
4. Cruella (Walt Disney)
5. The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros/HBO Max)

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures)

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix)
2. Flee (NEON)
3. Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney)
5. Belle (GKIDS)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Rescue (NatGeo)
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
4. Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Procession (Netflix)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
2. Flee (Denmark)
3. A Hero (Iran)
4. The Hand of God (Italy)
5. Drive My Car (Japan)