Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions (1/28/22): The Guilded Age

Like a rolling storm they came in, the Makeup and Hairstylists guild (MUAH), BAFTA longlists and Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations. Then Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), Visual Effects Society (VES) and the USC Scripter. 

Then what started as a twister turned into Category 5 tornado of guild announcements this week starting with the Art Directors Guild (ADG), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE), Cinema Audio Society (CAS), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and Costume Designers Guild (CDG), all coming to a head on Thursday with the wildest guild day in awards history as the four majors all announced on one day for the first time ever: American Cinema Editors (ACE), Writers Guild of America (WGA), Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the ultimate, the Producers Guild of America (PGA). All on the first day of Oscar voting, no less.

Moving away from critics’ awards, the guilds tell us either the same story (or at least an adaptation of it) or the real story and these announcements did a bit of both. It solidified what most of us have known since September; that Belfast and The Power of the Dog are the two, and only two, real frontrunners and that King Richard is right behind them (deny the Telluride stat at your own peril, pundits). It showed the weakness of West Side Story as it missed crucial guilds (ACE and ASC) and tricked us a bit into thinking that Nightmare Alley was poised for a big comeback after hitting MPSE, ADG, CDG and WGA. But alas, it was absent from DGA and PGA and it’s not the kind of film to make a comeback at the Oscars after that (shades of News of the World last year). Licorice Pizza also showed it’s not a Phantom Thread surprise for Paul Thomas Anderson as it nabbed DGA and PGA nods.

It showed that Nicole Kidman is the true Best Actress frontrunner as Being the Ricardos earned a surprise PGA nomination over stiff competition like House of Gucci, Spider-Man: No Way Home and No Time to Die. Fascinating when you consider the group ‘Theatrical Motion Picture’ right in its awards title opted not for three theatrical-only box office hits but went heavy on streamers; five of the 10 PGA nominees are from Amazon, Apple and Netflix. You can even make the argument that it’s really seven as Dune and King Richard went day/date with their theatrical and HBO Max release. But even as the Oscars are back to a straight 10 Best Picture nominees and simpler voting structure, PGA and the Academy have never lined up perfectly. Not even in 2009 and 2010 when we had the first 10-nominee list for Best Picture in this now decade-old expanded era. I think we’ll get 9/10 from that list with Being the Ricardos being the most precarious.

We also saw guild after guild snub Spencer, putting Kristen Stewart in jeopardy of a mere nomination, much less a near impossible shot at winning. She’ll need BAFTA next week to survive as Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), NBR and Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), SAG nominee Jennifer Hudson (Respect) and LAFCA/NSFC winner Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) are waiting for any chance to break in and there is a path for nearly every one of them to not simply unseat Stewart but another biopic actress. Or maybe they’re already there…

BAFTA nominations will give us the final piece of the puzzle on February 3 and from there final Oscar predictions will begin. Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for January 28, 2022.

BEST PICTURE

1. Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist, PGA  
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, PGA
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist, PGA
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, PGA
5. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, PGA
6. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, PGA
7. CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist, PGA
8. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist, PGA
9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, PGA  
10. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist    

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BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, DGA   
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, DGA   
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, DGA  
4. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, DGA   
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist   

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BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 

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BEST ACTRESS

1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
4. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist 
5. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist   
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist 

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, USC  
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, USC  
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, WGA  
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist   
5. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, USC, WGA  

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, WGA  
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, WGA  
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, WGA  
5. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist, WGA  

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FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ACE  
2. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ACE
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ACE
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, ACE  
5. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR)  – BAFTA longlist, ACE

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CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ASC  
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ASC
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ASC
4. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, ASC
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

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PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA, ADG
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA, ADG
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA, ADG  
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – BAFTA longlist, SDSA, ADG
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   

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COSTUME DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist , CDG  
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, CDG  
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, CDG
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, CDG
5. Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist, CDG

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MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, MUAH (2x)   
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist , MUAH (3x)  
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, MUAH (2x)   
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, MUAH (3x)   
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, MUAH (3x)   

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ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist  
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist 
5. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist

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ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL 
2. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA 
4. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect (MGM/UAR) – GG, SCL 
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL

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SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE (3x), CAS   
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE (2x), CAS   
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE, CAS  
4. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE, CAS     
5. Last Night in Soho (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE 

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VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, VES (6x)   
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist, VES (4x)  
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – VES (3x)
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios) – VES (3x)
5. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist, VES   

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ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
4. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist 

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, PGA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA 
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC

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INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) 

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ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  
2. Us Again (Walt Disney)
3. The Musician (MTV Entertainment)
4. Step Into the River (The New Yorker)
5. Namoo (Boabab Studios) 

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DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (Netflix)
3. Sophie and the Baron (Disney Original Documentary)
4. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
5. Terror Contagion (NEON) 

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LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset) 
3. Under the Heavens (The New Yorker) 
4. When the Sun Sets (HBO) 
5. Censor of Dreams (Salaud Morisset)