Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The ‘Power’ Surge
The Oscar nominations are here, leaving behind critics’ awards season (mostly) and on we press with BAFTA and the guilds to really start shaping the race.
But really, the nominations did a very good job of that themselves. As they do every year, the Academy provided us with some exciting surprises and inclusions and some baffling, even shocking snubs. Some won’t affect the race too much but more than a couple turned its on its head.
No doubt the Best Actress race has been one of the most heated of the season with critics’ leader Kristen Stewart (Spencer) going from frontrunner to struggling for a nomination of missing both SAG and BAFTA. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) were on their way to assured BAFTA noms as likely top 2 vote getters but no, snubbed as well. The biggest story of Oscar nominations morning in this category was Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) not making the cut. As the only Best Actress contender to hit all four precursors, the Academy had quite a different ending for her Oscar story this season, despite some of the most wild and fun campaign appearances of any contender. But in the end, it wasn’t just Gaga, AMPAS just didn’t go for Gucci at all as the film’s sole nomination came for its makeup and hair. We have zero crossover between BAFTA and Oscar this year, an historical first, as Gaga and Licorice Pizza‘s Alana Haim failed to translate their across the pond noms to ones here. In the end, not only was Stewart saved but also Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who put in an 11th hour campaign push that paid off.
One thing the nominations did is prove what some of us knew all along; that Telluride remains king and the top three films are still The Power of the Dog, Belfast and King Richard. West Side Story somehow did better and worse than expected and Licorice Pizza, with only three nominations (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay), fumbled too. That’s even before we get to what happened to Dune. Pulling the second-highest nomination total at 11, including Adapted Screenplay, Denis Villeneuve was blanked in Best Director, just as BAFTA did. Arguably the highest level of difficulty and technical achievement of the Best Picture nominees, his miss here is devastating.
Which brings us back to The Power of the Dog and Belfast. The frontrunners since September, the Oscar nominations saw a dramatic shift between the two films as Dog found itself with 12 nods (Jesse Plemons!), the most of any film, and maxing out every place it could save Costume Design (which would have been earned for Kodi Smit-McPhee’s crispy jeans alone). Belfast, on the other hand, not only saw the actors’ branch swap out GG/CCA/SAG/BAFTA nominee Caitríona Balfe for Oscar stalwart Judi Dench, but the film itself missed out on two crucial nominations: Film Editing and Cinematography. While the latter is less so (but still kind of inexplicable in context), it’s the editing miss that’s potentially fatal. We all know the importance of an editing nomination in order to secure a Best Picture win; only Birdman has missed that in the modern era (before that, 2005’s Brokeback Mountain, which lost, and before that, 1980’s Ordinary People, which won) and Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical film is rich with showy editing and cinematography.
Looking ahead to the upcoming precursors, it’s actually a quiet couple of weeks as so many guilds packed up from February and moved to March to distance themselves from Omicron. Coming up this month we’ll have the Makeup & Hairstyling Guild (MUAH) on the 19th, the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA) on the 22nd and a big one, the Screen Actors Guild Awards on the 27th.
We’ll all be keeping a close eye on how those SAG races suss out, especially Best Actress and SAG Cast.
Here are my first 2022 Oscar winner predictions in all 23 categories for Frontrunner Friday, February 11, 2022.
BEST PICTURE
- 1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- 2. Belfast (Focus Features) Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
- 3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
- 4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers – GG, CCA, PGA
- 5. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- 6. CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
- 7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
- 8. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- 9. Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
- 10. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers – CCA
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, DGA
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, DGA
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, DGA
4. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, DGA
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
BEST ACTOR
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG
5. Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG
BEST ACTRESS
1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
3. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – BAFTA
5. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, USC
2. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
3. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, USC
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
5. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, USC, WGA
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA
2. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
5. The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (NEON)
FILM EDITING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ACE
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, ACE
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – ACE
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – ACE
5. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – ACE
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
4. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, ASC, BAFTA
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – SDSA, ADG
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – SDSA
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, CDG
5. Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, CDG
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x)
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x)
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – MUAH (3x)
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
4. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SCL
5. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
ORIGINAL SONG
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, HMMA
3. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, HMMA
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, HMMA (Indie)
5. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Vertical Entertainment) – HMMA (indie), SCL
SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA, MPSE (3x), CAS
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, MPSE (2x), CAS
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, MPSE, CAS
4. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – MPSE, CAS
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – MPSE
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, VES (4x)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios) – VES (3x)
4. Free Guy (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA
5. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, VES
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
2. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
4. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures/Hulu) – CEH, CCA, IDA, PGA, BAFTA
2. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA
4. Attica (Showtime) – CCA
5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films) – IDA, PGA
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA
3. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – BAFTA
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. Robin Robin (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
2. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
3. The Windshield Wiper (The Animation Showcase)
4. Affairs of the Heart (The New Yorker)
5. Boxballet (Melnitsa Animation Studio)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
1. Audible (Netflix)
2. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
3. Three Songs for Benazir (Netflix)
4. When We Were Bullies (Locomotion Films)
5. Lead Me Home (NEON)
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. The Dress (DOBRO/MIŁO/GŁOSNO)
3. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset)
4. Please Hold (Scavenger Entertainment)
5. On My Mind (Benzoa Film)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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