Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The race looks promising and bloody

Golden Globe nominations, Screen Actors Guild nominations and the BAFTA longlists all announced within two days of each other this week and gave the shocks and surprises we always expect. It solidified the placement of many and shook the chances of others dramatically.

Critics’ awards are largely over with a few strangers still announcing through February but now it’s time for the guilds and industry to have their say and, as we often see, they can have a very different view of the race. With just these first announcements this week we’re already seeing that. While many pundits already had The Trial of the Chicago 7 in their #1 or #2 spot for Best Picture, the Aaron Sorkin film stands as the only film in the race with nominations for Picture, Director and Screenplay at the Golden Globes and a SAG Cast nomination. Granted, that last one was always going to be a reach for Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland with her largely non-actor cast but her film did still grab those same three at the Globes.

So who else got big boosts this week? Promising Young Woman blew up at the Globes with nominations for Motion Picture – Drama, Director and Screenplay (both for Emerald Fennell) and is taking shape as a major player in those Oscar categories as well as positioning Carey Mulligan, who earned Globe and SAG nominations and a BAFTA longlist mention, as a real threat in Best Actress. Fennell joined Zhao and Regina King in making Golden Globes history by having three women directors nominated in the same year for the first time in the HFPA’s 78-year history.

Minari probably needed those three SAG nominations it got more than any film. After missing out on acting nods at the Globes, it was exactly what the film had to add to its AFI, NBR and Spirit Award mentions. One big head scratcher though that it didn’t make the BAFTA longlist for Best Film. The Producers Guild will need to add to that tally to keep the film safe.

The Father bounced back at the Globes after a soft critics’ showing, snagging a Picture and Screenplay nomination over the likes of Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In fact, no Black-led films made the cut for either top Motion Picture categories at the Golden Globes in the face of one of the most explosive set of Black stories we’ve seen in a single year.

Da 5 Bloods took a pretty big hit this week after climbing the ranks with critics. The Globes blanked on it entirely, which was met with online backlash, especially with Spike Lee’s children being this year’s Golden Globe ambassadors and calls from folks on Twitter that they boycott the ceremony. Lee responded shortly after the nomination announcement he is proud his children will represent the first people of color as Golden Globe Ambassadors, squashing that possibility. In its favor though is it hit SAG and the BAFTA longlist, two actual industry voting blocks.

Mank finds itself curiously in the middle of a boost and a snub. The Golden Globes brought the film back to life after a paltry critics’ award season to give it nods in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and Score, the most of any film. Then SAG spoke up and not only snubbed the large ensemble in Cast category but perceived frontrunner Amanda Seyfried in Female Actor in a Supporting Role. It was an odd, and potentially devastating, snub. She did make the BAFTA longlist but now the door is very open in that category for anything from a second win for Olivia Colman or a first win for Glenn Close plus Maria Bakalova, having hit the Globes (in lead), SAG and the BAFTA longlist.

The biggest acting surprises after the Golden Globe and SAG announcements were probably Jared Leto in The Little Things and Helena Zengel in News of the World. While Zengel had been a consistent top 10 contender, it’s been hard to track how well News of the World might do with the Academy. It didn’t make a dent with critics, nor was it expected to. But in a year of largely independent and/or modestly budgeted films it stands out as one of the few big studio films to survive the year-plus long pandemic that shut down theaters and pushed big releases to 2021 and beyond.

But Leto, even as a previous Oscar winner, completely came out of left field. With The Little Things, the last late-breaking film to screen in the extended eligibility season, Warner Bros threw a big Hail Mary with it considering they had such a solid contender in Judas and the Black Messiah. In the film, Leto plays a pastiche of every creepy would be serial killer from every generic thriller we’ve seen before. Even with Oscar winners like Denzel Washington and Rami Malek as leads, the film was received as barely warmed over fare you might flip through and stop at when there’s nothing else on. But something obviously clicked with the HFPA and SAG nominating committee at the same time, as both groups’ voting periods overlapped almost identically. One caveat for Leto, he didn’t make the cut for the BAFTA longlist and can’t be nominated there. He wasn’t nominated at BAFTA for Dallas Buyers Club either though.

While it’s a given that every year sees one or two people grab a Globe and SAG nod (and sometimes Critics’ Choice and BAFTA) and get snubbed at the Oscars, will it be Leto this year? Or is Zengel, as a foreign youngster, in danger in favor of the likes of veteran Oscar winners like Ellen Burstyn, who made neither or Jodie Foster, who only has a Globe? It should be noted that Zengel is the first child actor to make both the Globes and SAG after Haley Joel Osment in 1999’s The Sixth Sense.

Let’s look at some charts, shall we? Here’s who nabbed all of the mentions this week from the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA longlists in Picture, Director and Acting.

Next up for awards announcements are the Critics’ Choice nominations on Monday the 8th, followed by the Oscar shortlists on the 9th. Still a ways to go for more big guild nominations like Producers Guild and Directors Guild, which we’ll have in early March.

Things are really kicking off now. Buckle up, awards season is officially on.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for February 5, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

3. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

5. Minari (A24) – GG (foreign), SAG
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

6. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) GG, BAFTA longlist
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

9. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist

2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist

4. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist

5. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

3. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – GG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist

3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Helena Zengel – News of the World – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) GG, BAFTA longlist
Aaron Sorkin

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Emerald Fennell

3. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Jack Fincher

4. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist
Lee Isaac Chung

5. Soul (Pixar) – BAFTA longlist
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Kirk Baxter

4. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Jennifer Lame

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist
Alexandra Byrne

3. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BAFTA longlist
Paolo Nieddu

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ann Roth

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mark Bridges

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Matiki Anoff (makeup department head), Mia Neal (hair department head), Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)

2. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Bill Corso (makeup department head), Kevin Yagher (special makeup effects artist)

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

4. The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BAFTA longlist
Ronald J. Wolfe (hair department head), Charles Gregory Ross (hair stylist: Ms. Day, wig designer, hair department head) Laini Thompson (makeup department head)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Katy Fray (makeup department head), Lisa Layman (makeup department head), Tyler Ely (hair department head)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist
James Newton Howard

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix) – GG
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

5. “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour (DreamWorks Animation)
Written by Justin Timberlake, Ludwig Göransson, Max Martin and Sarah Aarons

SOUND

1. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo

2. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

3. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

5. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Jonathan Dearing, Marcus Bolton, Matt Ebb, Aevar Bjarnason

4. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA longlist
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

5. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Onward (Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

5. No. 7 Cherry Lane
Yonfan, Monica Chau

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA longlist
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – PGA
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, PGA
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) – GG, BAFTA longlist

2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)

3. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina) – BAFTA longlist

4. Two of Us (France) – GG

5. Dear Comrades! (Russia) – BAFTA longlist

Images courtesy of Focus Features and Netflix