Frontrunner Friday: The Golden Globes and Kevin Hart make for the most tumultuous awards season kickoff ever

This, by the way, all happened yesterday – the same day as the Golden Globe Award nominations. There were definitely some surprises with yesterday’s announcement, including the fact that the very late-breaking Vice ended up being the nomination leader with six. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association does like to nominate these late-breakers and sometimes they are among the first to see a December release in time for its nominations. 

With that, let’s look at the history of Golden Globe nomination leaders since 2000, when BAFTA was before Oscars, and see if those six Vice noms are a fluke or if they mean it’s a formidable Oscar contender. Thank you to AW forum member tyjagi for compiling this list. 

2018: Vice
2017: The Shape of Water– won Director Globe and Score (WON BP + DIRECTOR)
2016: La La Land – swept Globes (WON DIRECTOR + ACTRESS)
2015: Carol
2014: Birdman – won Screenplay and Actor Globes (WON BP + DIRECTOR + SCREENPLAY)
2013: 12 Years a Slave/American Hustle – 12 Years a Slave won Drama Globe + Hustle won Comedy Globe, Actress, Supporting Actress (12 YEARS WON BP + SUPPORTING ACTRESS + SCREENPLAY)
2012: Lincoln – won Drama Actor Globe (WON ACTOR)
2011: The Artist – Won Comedy and Actor Globes (WON BP + DIRECTOR + OSCAR)
2010: The King’s Speech – won Drama and Actor Globes (WON BP + DIRECTOR + ACTOR + SCREENPLAY)
2009: Up in the Air – Won Screenplay Globe
2008: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button/Doubt/Frost Nixon – (BUTTON WON 3 TECHS)
2007: Atonement – won Drama Globe and Score (WON SCORE)
2006: Babel – won Drama Globe (WON SCORE)
2005: Brokeback Mountain – Won Drama Globe + Director + Screenplay + Song (WON DIRECTOR + SCREENPLAY)
2004: Sideways – won Comedy Globe and Screenplay (WON SCREENPLAY OSCAR)
2003: Cold Mountain – won Supporting Actress Globe (WON SUPPORTING ACTRESS)
2002: Chicago – dominated Globes (WON BP + SUPP ACTRESS)
2001: Moulin Rouge/Beautiful Mind – both won big (BEAUTIFUL MIND WON BP + DIRECTOR + SUPP ACTRESS + SCREENPLAY + MOULIN WON ART DIRECTION + COSTUME)
2000: Gladiator/Traffic – Gladiator won Drama Globe/Traffic won Supporting Actor and Screenplay (GLADIATOR WON BP + TRAFFIC WON DIRECTOR, SUPP ACTOR, SCREENPLAY)

MISSED BAFTA FILM NOM: (3)
– Traffic, Sideways, Doubt
– Traffic had 4 total noms (Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Editing, Directing) won Screenplay + Supporting Actor
– Sideways had 1 nom (Screenplay) and won
– Doubt had 3 noms (Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress)

MISSED BEST PICTURE NOM AT THE OSCARS: (3) 
– Cold Mountain, Doubt, Carol
Carol is only film to miss during expanded lineup

NO GLOBE OR OSCAR WINS: (3)
– Carol, Doubt, Frost Nixon

NO GLOBE WINS: (4)
– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost Nixon, Carol

NO OSCAR WINS: (4)
– Up in the Air (won Globe Screenplay). American Hustle (won Comedy + Actress + Supporting Actor), Doubt, Frost Nixon

With that, here are my Frontrunner Friday predictions for December 7, 2018.

BEST PICTURE

1. ROMA (AFI*, GG**, NBR)
2. A Star is Born (AFI, GG, NBR)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (AFI, GG, NBR, Spirit)
4. Black Panther (AFI, NBR, GG)
5. The Favourite (AFI, GG)
6. Green Book (AFI, GG, NBR winner)
7. Vice (GG)
8. BlacKkKlansman (AFI, GG)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (AFI, GG, NBR)
10. Eighth Grade (AFI, NBR, Spirit)

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (GG)
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (GG)
3. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk (Spirit)
4. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther
5. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (GG)

ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (GG)
2. Christian Bale – Vice (GG)
3. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (GG)
4. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (GG)
5. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (Spirit)

ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (GG, Spirit)
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (GG)
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (GG)
4. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
5. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (GG)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (GG, Spirit)
2. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (GG)
3. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (GG, Spirit)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
5. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (GG)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (GG, Spirit)
2. Emma Stone – The Favourite (GG)
3. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (GG)
4. Amy Adams – Vice (GG)
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (GG)
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Spirit)
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther
5. A Star Is Born

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite (GG)
2. First Reformed (Spirit)
3. ROMA (GG)
4. Vice (GG)
5. Green Book (GG)

FILM EDITING

1. ROMA
2. A Star is Born
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. First Man
4. A Star is Born
5. Cold War

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Black Panther

COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Black Panther
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Mary Queen of Scots

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. First Man (GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (GG)
4. Widows
5. Black Panther (GG)

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (GG)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
4. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (GG)
5. RBG, “I’ll Fight”

SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. ROMA
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. ROMA
5. Mary Poppins Returns

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Favourite
2. Border
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Ready Player One
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Bumblebee

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Incredibles 2 (GG)
2. Ralph Breaks the Internet (GG)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (GG)
4. Isle of Dogs (GG)
5. Mirai (GG)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Mexico – ROMA (GG)
2. Poland – Cold War
3. Lebanon – Capharnaüm (GG)
4. Denmark – The Guilty
5. United Kingdom – I Am Not a Witch

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (BFCA winner, CYE, IDA, Spirit)
2. RBG (BFCA)
3. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (CYE, IDA, Spirit)
4. Minding the Gap (BFCA, CYE, Spirit)
5. Shirkers (Spirit)