Frontrunner Friday: With PGA, DGA and SAG split, who’s really ahead in the Oscar race?

For only the 5th time in Oscar history we have a three-way split between the winners at the PGA (Producers Guild of America, who went for Green Book), DGA (Directors Guild of America, who went for Roma) and SAG (Screen Actors Guild, who chose Black Panther). It’s appropriate that, in a year this politically and socially divided, we’d have a split like this. Lack of consensus, lack of passion even, is pushing and pulling contenders in multiple directions.

To be sure, this ‘history’ is only since 1995, the year that SAG introduced the Cast award, which has become a bit of a default ‘Best Picture’ category for the 25-year old organization. But at least it give us information; avenues and paths that lead us to how the Academy arrives at Best Picture in fractured years.

In looking at the four times in the past that PGA/DGA/SAG went different ways, one time Oscar went with the PGA winner (Gladiator), one time with the SAG winner (Spotlight) and twice with the DGA winner (A Beautiful Mind and Million Dollar Baby). Only one of those falls under the era of the preferential ballot and that’s Spotlight. In this instance, actors likely pushed the film over the other two (The Big Short and The Revenant, both of which won other Oscars) with its low-key true story drama, importance and actors showcase. Although Spotlight only won one other Oscar (Original Screenplay) it showed the power of the preferential ballot and how important it is to be #2 or #3 on ballots where you aren’t the voter’s #1 film. Spotlight may not have had passion votes drive it to the top spot but respect and having the least amount of negatives did.

PGA / DGA / SAG

2000: Gladiator / Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon / Traffic

2001: Moulin Rouge! / A Beautiful Mind / Gosford Park

2004: The Aviator / Million Dollar Baby / Sideways

2015: The Big Short / The Revenant / Spotlight

2018: Green Book / Roma / Black Panther

Let’s break things down further and look at films that only won one of the three majors and which took that single triumph all the way and how each of this year’s winners might make that same play.

Much has been made about the similarities between Green Book and Driving Miss Daisy, the very first PGA winner. They’re fair comparisons in theme and subject and how each are handled but the historic awards trajectory similarities are even more striking. Driving Miss Daisy missed out on a Best Director nomination yet earned a Film Editing nod, same as Green Book. It’s an important distinction that the 1989 PGA was given after the Academy Awards that year (just by a few days but definitely with voting crossover) so that changes things a bit. A PGA-only winner has only triumphed three times, all with very different types of films but all with one very important factor – they all lost Best Director (or weren’t even nominated there). For Gladiator, the hugely populist film fended off the social relevance of Traffic (Best Director) and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Best Foreign Language Film). For 12 Years a Slave, its socially and historically important story put it over the sci-fi drama Gravity – which won Best Director for Alfonso Cuarón and tied at the PGA, a first. Only one of those, 12 Years a Slave, happened in the expansion era of the preferential ballot. Green Book may find itself with a piece of all of these films – historical importance, crowdpleaser and that weird place in the middle that hits older voters right in their safe spots, especially those that might have felt marginalized over the last few winners. It also seems to have survived one controversy after another, even finding ways to paint itself as the bullied underdog (with the help of certain outlets that I won’t mention but rhymes with MedFine). Certain voters may respond positively to that rather than negatively about its more problematic issues.

PGA winners who lost DGA and SAG (Green Book)

2015: The Big Short

2013: 12 Years a Slave

2004: The Aviator

2001: Moulin Rouge!

2000: Gladiator

— (SAG Cast started in 1995)

1992: The Crying Game

1989: Driving Miss Daisy

The only section to not have a Best Picture winner from the expansion era is the sole DGA win. For Unforgiven the Academy embraced a longtime actor whose directing hit a career high at exactly the right time. 1992 was definitely going to be kinder to a brutal western than it was going to be for a stunningly brave LGBTQ film like The Crying Game as their Best Picture (and they wouldn’t until 2016). For A Beautiful Mind, a film that took its share of slings and arrows of controversy over inaccuracies in the portrayal of its real-life lead character and trouble with leading man Russell Crowe, this was a bit of an apology to director Ron Howard, who was snubbed in 1995 when his Apollo 13 won PGA, DGA and SAG and then not only lost Best Picture but didn’t even find room for Howard as Best Director nominee. The Departed was, for all intents and purposes, year to finally reward Martin Scorsese both Best Director and Best Picture after decades of losses. The Academy was so brazen as to have the directing category presented by his peers Francis Ford Coppola, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg. Imagine if that stunt had failed.

What does this mean for Roma? Will it end up like The Revenant or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon? There’s a chance it finds itself in a very similar circumstance as the latter. Both CTHD and Roma won the Golden Globes for Foreign Language Film and Director. Both won the DGA. Both came in with 10 nominations, a tie for Foreign Language Films at the Oscars. Cuarón is already a Best Director Oscar winner and for a film that came this close to winning Best Picture (Gravity, which won 6 Oscars). Something that separates Roma from CTHD is that it earned two acting nominations. Not only that but Best Actress nominee Yalitza Aparicio only had a Critics’ Choice nom coming in and Supporting Actress nominee Marina de Tavira had nothing. And I mean nothing. Even less than Marcia Gay Harden did. That’s huge. It means actors are behind this movie and without actors, you’re not winning Best Picture.

DGA winners who lost PGA and SAG (Roma)

2015: The Revenant

2006: The Departed

2004: Million Dollar Baby

2001: A Beautiful Mind

2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

— (SAG Cast started in 1995)

1992: Unforgiven

1989: Born on the Fourth of July

Of the 13 films that fall under the SAG category, only four came up empty-handed at the Oscars and only one of them (The Birdcage) was not nominated for Best Picture. All Best Picture winners here also had multiple above the line nominations, including acting, directing and screenplay and each of them won at least one of those. Black Panther has no above the line nominations at all (not even film editing) so it’s hard to make an argument for its SAG win to be able to translate into Best Picture. Whether it’s the modern era or the past, there just isn’t a path for it outside of its monster box office and culturally relevant social message. Is that enough? I don’t think so. There are probably enough Academy members still chuffed at the idea of a ‘comic book’ movie even entering the Best Picture rankings and I can see it ending up on the low end of many of their ballots.

SAG winners who lost PGA and DGA (Black Panther)

2017: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2016: Hidden Figures

2015: Spotlight

2013: American Hustle

2011: The Help

2009: Inglorious Basterds

2005: Crash

2004: Sideways

2001: Gosford Park

2000: Traffic

1998: Shakespeare in Love

1997: The Full Monty

1996: The Birdcage

So where does that leave Green Book, Roma and Black Panther in this race? What if BAFTA goes deep for The Favourite this weekend? That would obviously complicate things more but I’m thinking they’ll probably break for Roma. If that’s the case it will likely enough to call (or keep) Roma as the frontrunner. It also makes for a nearly impossible chance for BlacKkKlansman, which was nominated for all three and lost them all, a whisper now. I thought Spike Lee’s film stood a very good chance of winning PGA and/or SAG and it needed one of them to have a fighting chance. Focus Features has never won Best Picture before (they got close with Brokeback Mountain) but they’ve done quite well with acting winners (Oldman, Redmayne, McConaughey). Still, BlacKkKlansman is likely winning Adapted Screenplay (and probably WGA) an on a preferential ballot that may be enough for it leapfrog over the presumed three leaders and find itself with the final award of the night.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday predictions for the 2019 Oscars on Friday, February 8, 2019 and don’t forget to follow my 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions page here, updating live until the day of the Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE

1. ROMA (BFCA, GG*)
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
3. GREEN BOOK (GG, PGA)
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
4. THE FAVOURITE
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
5. BLACK PANTHER (SAG)
Kevin Feige
6. VICE
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
7. A STAR IS BORN
Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
8. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG)
Graham King

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
PGA- Producers Guild of America
SAG – Screen Actors Guild

*Foreign Language Film winner

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BFCA, DGA, GG)
2. Spike Lee – BLACKkKLANSMAN
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – THE FAVOURITE
4. Adam McKay – VICE
5. Pawel Pawlikowski – COLD WAR

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
DGA – Directors Guild of America
GG – Golden Globe

ACTOR

1. Rami Malek – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG, SAG)
2. Christian Bale – VICE (BFCA, GG)
3. Bradley Cooper – A STAR IS BORN
4. Viggo Mortensen – GREEN BOOK
5. Willem Dafoe – AT ETERNITY’S GATE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild

ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – THE WIFE (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Olivia Colman – THE FAVOURITE (GG)
3. Lady Gaga – A STAR IS BORN (BFCA)
4. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
5. Melissa McCarthy – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – GREEN BOOK (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Richard E. Grant – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
3. Adam Driver – BLACKkKLANSMAN
4. Sam Elliott – A STAR IS BORN
5. Sam Rockwell – VICE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (BFCA, GG)
2. Rachel Weisz – THE FAVOURITE
3. Marina de Tavira – ROMA
4. Amy Adams – VICE
5. Emma Stone – THE FAVOURITE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
2. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Barry Jenkins (BFCA)
3. CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
5. A STAR IS BORN – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
USC – USC Scripter Award
WGA – Writers Guild of America

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. THE FAVOURITE – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
2. GREEN BOOK – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (GG)
3. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón
4. VICE – Adam McKay
5. FIRST REFORMED – Paul Schrader (BFCA)

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
WGA – Writers Guild of America

FILM EDITING

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
2. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Ottman
3. VICE – Hank Corwin
4. THE FAVOURITE – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
5. GREEN BOOK – Patrick J. Don Vito

ACE – American Cinema Editors
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón (BFCA)
2. COLD WAR – Łukasz Żal
3. A STAR IS BORN – Matthew Libatique
4. THE FAVOURITE – Robbie Ryan
5. NEVER LOOK AWAY – Caleb Deschanel

ASC – American Society of Cinematographers
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (ADG)
2. BLACK PANTHER – Hannah Beachler (ADG, BFCA)
3. ROMA – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
4. FIRST MAN – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
5. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – John Myhre, Gordon Sim

ADG – Art Directors Guild
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Sandy Powell
2. BLACK PANTHER – Ruth E. Carter (BFCA)
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Sandy Powell
4. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Alexandra Byrne
5. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Mary Zophres

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
CDG – Costume Designers Guild

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Nicholas Britell
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Terence Blanchard
3. BLACK PANTHER – Ludwig Goransson
4. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Marc Shaiman
5. ISLE OF DOGS – Alexandre Desplat

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A STAR IS BORN “Shallow” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice (BFCA, GG)
2. BLACK PANTHER – “All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
5. RBG – “I’ll Fight” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

SOUND EDITING

1. FIRST MAN – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
2. BLACK PANTHER – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
3. ROMA – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
4. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Warhurst
5. A QUIET PLACE – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

MPSE – Motion Picture Sound Editors

SOUND MIXING

1. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
2. ROMA – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
3. FIRST MAN – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
4. BLACK PANTHER – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
5. A STAR IS BORN – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CAS – Cinema Audio Society

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. VICE – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney (BFCA)
2. BORDER – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
3. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
MUAH – Makeup and Hairstyling Guild

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick (VES)
2. FIRST MAN – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm (VES)
3. SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
4. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
5. READY PLAYER ONE – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
VES – Visual Effects Society

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman (Annie, BFCA, GG)
2. INCREDIBLES 2 – Brad Bird
3. ISLE OF DOGS – Wes Anderson
4. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
5. MIRAI – Mamoru Hosoda

Annie – International Animated Film Association
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen
2. FREE SOLO – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
3. MINDING THE GAP – Bing Liu
4. HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING – RaMell Ross (CEH)
5. OF FATHERS AND SONS – Talal Derki

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CEH – Cinema Eye Honors
DGA – Directors Guild of America
IDA – Independent Documentary Association
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. ROMA – Mexico (BFCA, GG)
2. COLD WAR – Poland
3. SHOPLIFTERS – Japan
4. NEVER LOOK AWAY – GErmany
5. CAPERNAUM – Lebanon

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

ANIMATED SHORT

1. BAO – Domee Shi
2. ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR – Alison Snowden, David Fine
3. LATE AFTERNOON – Louise Bagnall
4. ONE SMALL STEP – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
5. WEEKENDS – Trevor Jimenez

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. A NIGHT IN THE GARDEN – Marshall Curry
2. END GAME – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
3. PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE. – Rayka Zehtabchi
4. LIFEBOAT – Skye Fitzgerald
5. BLACK SHEEP – Ed Perkins

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

1. MARGUERITE – Marianne Farley
2. SKIN – Guy Nattiv
3. DETAINMENT – Vincent Lambe
4. MOTHER – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
5. FAUVE – Jeremy Comte