Gold Rush Gang Predictions – Post SAG/GG/BFCA

With the first round of major industry and critics nominations revealed, the Gold Rush Gang has unleashed their updated predictions in all categories. Taking into account the Screen Actors Guild, the Golden Globes, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the abundance of critics groups, the race between 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity now seems to be 12 Years a Slave vs. American Hustle. Hustle has seen a huge push of support and attention in the recent weeks while 12 Years a Slave may have suffered from some early frontrunner syndrome. It’s done well with the the 2nd and 3rd tier critics associations but not so much with the major players like LA and NY, which split their Best Pic wins between Gravity and Her (a tie) and American Hustle, respectively. 12 Years a Slave won Boston and DC.

And what about Her, anyway? The Spike Jonze directed, low-key sci-fi film burst onto the scene with raves reviews and some crucial early wins in this race, including the National Board of Review’s Best Film and a tie win from Los Angeles. The Warner Brothers film is showing some real fight and could prove itself to be a threat. Granted, it didn’t show up at SAG but its showing at the Golden Globes and the BFCA tell us it’s a competitor.

While American Hustle flexed its muscle this week with a wealth of nominations the one person missing out was Amy Adams. No SAG, and relegated to a “Comedy Actress” nomination from the BFCA (despite the film netting 12 other nominations and their ‘real’ Best Actress category having six nominees) tells us that Adams’ placement in Oscar’s Best Actress top 5 is tenuous at best. Granted, she’s gotten in without a SAG nom before (for The Master) but all of her nominations so far (four of them) have been in Supporting. By all accounts her performance in American Hustle, which has been heavily lauded, is borderline lead and with Jennifer Lawrence scooping up the majority of ink for her supporting turn in the film and that leaves Adams potentially out in the cold. Oscar may just not be ready to let Adams graduate to Lead status quite yet.

Blue Jasmine took a hit, failing to score anything outside of Cate Blanchett for Lead Actress. The Globes, who are fêting Woody Allen at their awards, didn’t even nominate it for Screenplay. Sour grapes for Allen not showing up to accept the honor? Maybe. Another film that bit the Oscar dust was Fruitvale Station. No SAG mentions, no Golden Globe mentions. Even the BFCA, which gave it a high enough score to land in their top 10, opted for Dallas Buyers Club instead. After that film scored a surprising Cast in a Motion Picture SAG nomination it seems pretty clear that the BFCA was merely trying to follow the stream with that. The Wolf of Wall Street’s late showing didn’t do it any favors as it also scored a fat zero with SAG and Scorsese lost out on what should have been an easy mention in Director at the Golden Globes. It remains to be seen if we’ll see a Django Unchained redux and the Oscars see it in time to find a place for it at the table.

For all of your Gold Rush Gang predictions head over the the GRG headquarters starting here: The Gold Rush Gang – Best Picture.

For the newest Gold Rush Gang Oscar Podcast, check it out here.