Golden Globe nomination predictions: Expect a big day for Netflix, ‘Nomadland’ and indie fare

You’d think it would be easier to suss out where the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of less than 90 people, are leaning with their yearly nominations. As individuals, they’re not a very talkative bunch (unless you’re an A-list celeb) so predicting the Golden Globe nominations each year is a wild gambit. This year might be even more so with extended eligibilities, the lack of star meet and greets and even the group’s awards show having to subvert its star-studded event for a virtual one. Could that give us wildly different nominations than we expect? Without the in person factor that the HFPA crave, and more time to see more films, it might mean an excitingly unpredictable race.

The eligibility of Hamilton in the film categories here (it will compete in the TV categories at SAG and is not eligible for the Oscars) could really throw a wrench into where the Globes can be instrumental in showing us where paths and patterns may lie. The film itself is a slam dunk in Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical but where will its stars land? Will Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. both get in or will the HFPA be fine with just Miranda and keeping Odom in Supporting Actor for One Night in Miami? Will the female stars, Phillipa Soo and Renee Elise Goldsberry factor in? I’m thinking no for the women but there’s always a chance if they go crazy for it.

The recent announcement that Minari was submitted and would be competing in the group’s Foreign Language Film category and therefore ineligible in their main motion picture category (drama or comedy/musical) caused a lot of uproar with actors and directors outraged at what has been a long-standing rule with the HFPA. Last year, for example, Lulu Wang’s The Farewell was only allowed to compete in FLF, where it was nominated. But, the film’s star, Awkwafina, was submitted, nominated and won the lead actress in a comedy or musical Globe. This isn’t the only rule of this type they have: documentaries aren’t allowed to be nominated in any category, not even song or score. Animated films can only compete in song, score and its own animated film category. It makes me wonder if the backlash might actually give Minari an upper hand in a broader range of categories now. It is, after all, one of the best reviewed films of the year. But, for a group that is distinctly non-American they gravitate to American films more than any other.

Across film and television, Meryl Streep has been nominated for 32 Golden Globes, more than any other person, winning eight plus the Cecil B. DeMille Award. Could she grab two nominations in the same category this year? Of course she can, and she’s done it before. Three times, in fact. She first did it in 2003 with a lead nomination in The Hours and a supporting nomination for Adaptation, winning the latter. In 2009 she was nominated for Mamma Mia! in Comedy/Musical and Doubt in Drama. In 2010 she scored dual nominations in the same category, Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, for both Julie & Julia and It’s Complicated and won for Julie & Julia. This year she The Prom and Let Them All Talk and while the buzz on both feel a bit muted now, she can easily steal a spot in the Comedy/Musical lead actress category.

I think you can expect Netflix to have a very good nomination morning but sheer virtue of volume. With top titles like Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not to mention The Prom over in comedy/musical), the pandemic sidelined so many major old school studio efforts that the world’s #1 streamer was able to capitalize on output. Amazon Studios should also have a great showing with One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm popping up in multiple categories.

One thing we know, with the majority of critics’ awards out of the way and the Screen Actors Guild announcing their nominations the day after the Globes announce theirs, we’re finally, firmly, in awards season.

This year’s recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award is Jane Fonda. The 78th Golden Globe Award nominations will be announced on Wednesday, February 3 and the virtual ceremony will take place on February 28 at 5pm PT/8pm ET and be hosted once again by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler.

Here are my nomination predictions.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

Watch out for: Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) or Mank (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

Watch out for: Tom Hanks, News of the World or Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Watch out for: Andra Day, United States vs Billie Holiday or Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Emma. (Focus Features)
Hamilton (Disney+)
Palm Springs (Hulu)
The Prom (Netflix)

Watch out for: Eurovision Song Contest: The Tale of Fire Saga (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin Manuel-Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Watch out for: Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island or Will Ferrell, Eurovision Song Contest: The Tale of Fire Saga

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

Watch out for: Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs or Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Watch out for: Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami or Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Watch out for: Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk or Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Best Director
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Regina King, One Night in Miami

Watch out for: Paul Greengrass, News of the World or George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Screenplay
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of Chicago 7

Watch out for: Da 5 Bloods or Minari

Best Original Score
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Watch out for: Da 5 Bloods or Tenet

Best Original Song
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Husavik (My Hometown)” form Eurovision Song Contest: The Tale of Fire Saga
“Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom

Watch out for: “Loyal Brave True” from Mulan or “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Watch out for: Trolls: World Tour or The Willoughbys

Best Foreign Language Film
Another Round (Denmark)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
The Life Ahead (Italy)
Minari (USA)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia)

Watch out for: Cuties (France) or I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom image courtesy of David Lee/Netflix; Nomadland image courtesy of Searchlight Pictures