Golden Globe Nomination Predictions (Film): Can The Martian and Joy Bounce Back?

 

After the crazy morning of Screen Actors Guild nominations, the Gold Rush Gang (and I imagine most other Oscar prognosticators) went into a tizzy reworking their Golden Globe predictions. Some big changes, some small but today proved just how unsettled this season is. Early screeners were key for 2,000+ SAG nominating committee, facetime and interviews are big for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

What do we expect for tomorrow? After across the board snubs at SAG, we expect The Martian and Joy to both bounce back a bit. But, how much is that predicated on both films being in the Comedy category? Will Sarah Silverman follow up her shocking SAG Best Actress nomination for I Smile Back with a mention from The Globes, a la Jennifer Aniston in Cake? That seems less likely as Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Rooney Mara (Carol) – both of whom received SAG noms in Supporting today – are in the Lead category. That will likely prove too much competition for Silverman.

Some in the Gold Rush Gang expect the resurgence of Beasts of No Nation at the SAGs today to spill over into the Globes tomorrow. A few categories look less up in the air than others; Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama) has all GRG members who voted falling in line with the same five except for Evan. He has Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) making it in over Rooney Mara. There’s also outliers like Carey Mulligan in Suffragette and Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road. Speaking of which, could MM:FR find its way into the Motion Picture drama category? George Miller has a few votes in Director so it could happen.

Best Motion Picture (Drama) will be interesting. With so many female-led films this year we could see any number of Brooklyn, Carol or Room show up but there’s also a chance things will turn out like they did this morning at SAG, with nothing but a boys club in the top category. With Spotlight, The Revenant, Beasts of No Nation and Bridge of Spies expected to do well here, it doesn’t look good. But our group thinks Carol has the best shot of cracking it. Trumbo is a big question here. After its three SAG noms it should show up anywhere. Right now only I have Bryan Cranston in Drama Actor but most of us have Helen Mirren repeating her Supporting SAG nomination with the Globes tomorrow.

The Comedy category should be a combination of old blood and new blood. Amy Schumer, Jennifer Lawrence, Anne Hathaway will battle Meryl Streep, Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith for those five spots with an outside shot for Melissa McCarthy to show up. With The Martian just barely making into the Comedy section by a single vote that could mean the members who voted against it there won’t vote for it at all. That could be to the benefit of Joy or The Big Short. Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) is a locked five with no outlying vote for anyone other than Christian Bale and Steve Carell (The Big Short), Bradley Cooper (Burnt), Matt Damon (The Martian) and Robert De Niro (The Intern). It’s a bleak category with maaaaybe an outside shot for Bill Hader (Trainwreck) to show up.

Nominations for the 73rd annual Golden Globes will be announced Thursday morning beginning at 8:15 a.m. EST. Angela Bassett, America Ferrera, Chloë Grace Moretz and Dennis Quaid will be on hand at the Beverly Hilton to announce nominees in 25 categories.

The nominations will be streamed live on GoldenGlobes.com.

The 73rd annual Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Ricky Gervais, will air on Sunday, Jan. 10th, 2016, at 8pm EST/5:00 PST live from Beverly Hills, California.

The 2016 Cecil B. DeMille Award will be given to Denzel Washington.

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Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Beasts of No Nation – Chris, Evan, James, Jason, Kenneth
Bridge of Spies – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Brooklyn – Jacqui
Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
The Revenant – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Spotlight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
Steve Jobs – Erik, James

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

The Big Short – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
The Intern – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James
Joy – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
The Martian – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Sisters – Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
Trainwreck – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo – Erik
Johnny Depp, Black Mass – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Will Smith, Concussion – Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Christian Bale, The Big Short – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Steve Carell, The Big Short – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Bradley Cooper, Burnt – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Matt Damon, The Martian – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Robert De Niro, The Intern – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Cate Blanchett, Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Brie Larson, Room – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Rooney Mara, Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years – Evan
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Anne Hathaway, The Intern – Erik, James
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van – Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Lily Tomlin, Grandma – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Benicio Del Toro, Sicario – Evan, Kenneth, Jacqui
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James, Jason, Kenneth
Michael Keaton, Spotlight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight – Adam, Jacqui, James
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Sylvester Stallone, Creed – Erik, Adam, Chris, Jacqui, James, Jason
Jacob Tremblay, Room – Erik, Chris, Evan, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy – Jacqui
Jane Fonda, Youth – Erik, Adam, Chris, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, J Jacqui, ames, Jason, Kenneth
Helen Mirren, Trumbo – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria – Evan
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Director

Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation – James, Jason
Todd Haynes, Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James, Jason, Kenneth
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road – Jacqui, Kenneth
Ridley Scott, The Martian – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James

Best Screenplay

The Big Short – Chris
Bridge of Spies – Chris, Evan, Jason
Brooklyn – Jacqui, James
Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
The Hateful Eight – Erik, Adam, James, Kenneth
The Martian – Erik, Adam, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Spotlight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Steve Jobs – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth

Best Animated Feature Film

Anomalisa – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
The Good Dinosaur – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Home – Jacqui
Hotel Transylvania 2 – James
Inside Out – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Minions – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James, Jason
The Peanuts Movie – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, Jason, Kenneth
Shaun the Sheep Movie – Kenneth

Best Foreign Language Film

Dheepan – Evan, James, Jason, Kenneth
Labyrinth of Lies – Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Mustang – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
Phoenix – Erik, Adam, Chris, Jacqui, Kenneth
The Second Mother – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason
Son of Saul – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Jason, Kenneth
A War – Erik

Best Original Score

Beasts of No Nation – Chris, Evan, James, Kenneth
Bridge of Spies – Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui
Carol – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, James, Jacqui, Kenneth
The Danish Girl – Jacqui
The Hateful Eight – Erik, Adam, Chris, Evan, Jacqui, James, Kenneth
Inside Out – Erik, Adam, Jacqui
Mad Max: Fury Road – Adam
The Revenant – Erik, Chris, Evan, James, Kenneth
Sicario – Erik
Spotlight – Kenneth
Steve Jobs – James