Golden Globe Predictions (Motion Picture): The Post, Call Me By Your Name, Three Billboards, Get Out, Lady Bird and I, Tonya in the fight

The Golden Globes feel more difficult to predict this year than most. With category placements for films like Three Billboards in Drama, Get Out in Comedy and Beatriz at Dinner (which is appealing its Drama ruling) the line of what defines a film’s genre keeps getting muddier each year. The split of the top categories made more sense in the era of the movie musical but far less so today. What qualifies as a comedy now would never have at that time either. But, here we are.

There are some real nail-biter categories this year, especially the big ones – Motion Picture Drama and Comedy/Musical. In Drama, I have six films contending for five spots and there is a case to be made for all of them to be in but not really for any one of them to be left off. I imagine it will be a tough decision for the 90+ HFPA voters and the difference between the 5th and 6th spot could be as little as one vote. That nomination race should be between Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Something else sneaking in (Mudbound, perhaps) would mean two top contenders would fail to make the cut. Last year I got four of five in Motion Picture Drama (I had Fences in over Lion) and I think there’s a good chance of that again this year. Nailing the top 5 here will be some good predicting.

The last two films the HFPA will see this season before voting are The Post and then Phantom Thread right on the deadline. While I don’t think Phantom Thread will be among the top 5, The Post most surely will be. Or will it? Is it the weak link? How could it be when Spielberg, Hanks and Streep are such huge Globes favorites? I feel like Darkest Hour and Call Me By Your Name feel the most vulnerable, which itself seems crazy as Gary Oldman is certainly a Best Actor lock and Call Me By Your Name could find itself with three acting nominations, not to mention Director and Screenplay. How would it get all of that and then miss out?

Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical is equally as tough, even with Three Billboards out. Battle of the Sexes, Get Out and Lady Bird seem like locks. But then what? There are two bonafide musicals to consider – Beauty and the Beast and The Greatest Showman, both of which could stake a claim here. The former is the live action version of a classic animated film and is the highest grossing film of the year and the latter is an original musical from the songwriter’s of last year’s La La Land, the film with the most Golden Globes wins of all time. After that you have to consider the sleeper hit The Big Sick (which should earn two acting nods), The Disaster Artist (a sure bet for James Franco) and I, Tonya (which feels like an win in store for Margot Robbie). Not to mention Downsizing. Alexander Payne’s films have always done well with the HFPA. His last four were nominated in Motion Picture (both sides), with The Descendants winning Drama in 2012 and Sideways winning Comedy or Musical in 2005. The big difference is that Downsizing does not have the reviews that Payne’s previous films had. At the moment I’m seeing a shutout of the musicals and of Payne at the top with the two films I see as winning the comedy lead acting categories filling it out.

The nominations for the 75th Golden Globes will be announced on December 11, 2017. Here are my predictions.

Motion Picture – Drama

Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

In the running: Darkest Hour, First They Killed My Father, The Florida Project, Last Flag Flying, Mudbound, Phantom Thread

Actor – Motion Picture, Drama

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks – The Post
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

In the running: Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Chadwick Boseman – Marshall, Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying, Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger, Andrew Garfield – Breathe, Jeremy Renner – Wind River

Actress – Motion Picture, Drama

Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep – The Post
Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel

In the running: Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Claire Foy – Breathe, Salma Hayek – Beatriz at Diner, Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread, Diane Kruger – In the Fade, Jennifer Lawrence – mother!, Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Battle of the Sexes
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

In the running: Beauty and the Beast, The Big Sick, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman, Victoria and Abdul

Actor – Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Matt Damon – Downsizing
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick

In the running: Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes, Tom Cruise – American Made, Eugenio Derbez – How to Be a Latin Lover

Actress – Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
Emma Watson – Beauty and the Beast

In the running:
Allison Williams – Get Out, Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman

Directing

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg – The Post

In the running: Angelina Jolie – First They Killed My Father, Alexander Payne – Downsizing, Jordan Peele – Get Out, Dee Rees – Mudbound, Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Supporting Actor

Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name

In the running: Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying, Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour

Supporting Actress

Hong Chau – Downsizing
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

In the running: Mary J. Blige – Mudbound, Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip, Catherine Keener – Get Out, Melissa Leo – Novitiate, Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread, Tatiana Maslany – Stronger, Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour

Screenplay

Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

In the running: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Phantom Thread

Original Score

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

In the running: First They Killed My Father, The Post, Stronger, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Original Song

“Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
“Mystery of Love” – Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me” – Coco
“I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” – Fifty Shades Darker
“This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman

In the running: “If I Dare” – Battle of the Sexes, “Visions of Gideon” – Call Me By Your Name, “Come Alive” – The Greatest Showman, “Stand Up For Something” – Marshall, “Mighty River” – Mudbound, “Never Forget” – Murder on the Orient Express

Animated Film

The Breadwinner
Cars 3
Coco
Despicable Me 3
The Lego Batman Movie

In the running: The Boss Baby, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

Foreign Language Film

BPM (France)
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia/USA)
Foxtrot (Israel)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)

In the running: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), In the Fade (Germany), Redoubtable (France), Summer 1993 (Spain), Thelma (Norway)