Golden Globe Predictions (Film): La La Land and Moonlight Should Shine, Hacksaw Ridge Could Blow Up

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This is an especially tough year to predict the Golden Globe nominations. Every year sees the weird idiosyncrasies of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association from specious category placement to outright favoritism but at least the group of 90+ international journalists is trying to repair their decades-old negative reputation. It doesn’t hurt though that the show is still one of the best times of the year. Often raucous, fueled by fast-pouring booze and biting commentary from hosts like Ricky Gervais and Tina Fey & Amy Poehler, the show is meta-Hollywood at is sharpest sometimes.

This year, with NBC’s Jimmy Fallon anchoring the show (the same network that’s airing the Globes) I expect a lot less of that biting commentary and more of Fallon’s genial, inoffensive blandness. It will be interesting to see how the stars react to him and how the critics deconstruct his performance next month.

Anyway, onto predictions. Like I said, a tough year. While it seems like La La Land and Moonlight are safe bets for a handful of nominations (being in separate categories helps both), after that it’s a bit of a toss-up. Hacksaw Ridge is making a killer showing so far, landing Top 10 placement with the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute. With that comes Mel Gibson, still one of Hollywood’s most controversial figures but who seems to have been granted a redemption card this year. It feels like he and his film stand a very good chance at getting in.

Silence is tough. I’m hearing that the group was a bit cold on the film so I’m seeing it on the outside looking in. That makes room for Hell or High Water but I can see Lion, Arrival or Hidden Figures making a play.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Other Contenders: Arrival, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Lion, Loving, Silence, Sully
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The Globes love the Coen Brothers and even though Hail, Caesar! took a bit of a critical drubbing, it could easily show up. The only true locks here are Florence Foster Jenkins and La La Land, everything else a strong argument for and against it being here. 20th Century Women seems like it should be but I think it will just barely miss.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
The Lobster
Love and Friendship

Other Contenders: 20th Century Women, Café Society, Everybody Wants Some!!, The Nice Guys, Rules Don’t Apply, Sing Street
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I’m very secure in four of these five predictions. Jessica Chastain is my only question. The Globes like her but Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures could absolutely spoil, especially if her film shows up other places.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Other Contenders: Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals; Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train; Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
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I feel like I should include Viggo Mortensen in this top five, I just don’t know who I would boot to put him in. Joel Edgerton and Andrew Garfield seem like the most vulnerable so if Mortensen makes it in it will likely be one of those two who misses.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Contenders: Andrew Garfield, Silence; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
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This is a pretty rich category thanks to a year of great comedic (and musical) performances by leading ladies. Bening, Stone, and Streep are locked. Kate Beckinsale seems like a perfect Globe choice here, as does Field. But, I’m looking at Renée Zellweger as the spoiler.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Kate Beckinsale, Love and Friendship
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Sally Field, Hello My Name is Doris
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Other Contenders: Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply; Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen; Kristen Stewart, Café Society; Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Baby
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Even though I hemmed and hawed on Awards Circuit’s podcast that Warren Beatty wasn’t going to make it in here, I’ve relented. It does seem reasonable that if Bening is in that Beatty sit beside her as a nominee. He is an 11-time nominee and two-time winner (plus the Cecil B. DeMille) to boot. He seems like this year’s first stop-last stop Jane Fonda (Youth) nomination. I’m wondering if we could end up seeing THREE Ryans here. Obviously, Gosling will get in for La La Land but he could easily scoop up a second nomination for The Nice Guys since the Globes, unlike the Oscars, don’t have a rule against it. The other Ryan, Reynolds, has mounted quite a campaign for a nomination here for Deadpool and I think it’s going to pay off. Watch out for Robert De Niro in The Comedian, though.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Other Contenders: Josh Brolin, Hail, Caesar!; Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead; Russell Crowe, The Nice Guys; Robert De Niro, The Comedian; Adam Driver, Paterson; Alden Ehrenreich, Rules Don’t Apply; Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys
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This category stands a very good chance at dual nominations for Hell or High Water with both Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster making the cut. It all depends on how the group feels about Silence, though; Liam Neeson obviously stands a good chance here.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Other Contenders: Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This; Aaron Eckhart, Sully; Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash; Liam Neeson, Silence; Jeremy Renner, Arrival
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This category will probably look the closest like the eventual Oscar top 5. Davis, Harris, Kidman and Williams are virtual locks – it’s just that 5th spot that’s open. It could be Spencer, Gerwig or Monáe. But watch out for Helen Mirren in Eye in the Sky, too.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Other Contenders: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women; Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky; Janelle Monáe, Hidden Figures
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Denzel Washington is an HFPA favorite, he’s won two competitive Golden Globes and was the recipient of their Cecil B. DeMille Award at the last awards. Although he hasn’t been nominated from the group for his directing, his 2007 directing effort, The Great Debaters, did earn a Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination. It seems like a risk to push Kenneth Lonergan out but call it a hunch. If you think it’s odd to have Martin Scorsese show up here as a director without a Picture nomination, it’s actually not that uncommon. Previous names who have done that are: David Fincher, Gone Girl; Clint Eastwood, Invictus, Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima; Peter Jackson, King Kong and Steven Speilberg, Munich. Big names all, making Scorsese or Eastwood strong candidates for a lone director spot here.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Contenders: Garth Davis, Lion; Clint Eastwood, Sully; Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
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No Best Picture Oscar winner has missed screenplay here since Million Dollar Baby. That’s good for La La Land, whose screenplay is probably its most tenuous category. Not specifically because of the film but because screenplays for musicals are often sidelined. Very good chance for Hell or High Water to show up here.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

Fences
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Other Contenders: 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Lion, Silence
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The Globes, despite being a group of international journalists, tend to favor the big, blockbuster animated films from the big studios which is why you see Sing here instead of The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Zootopia

Other Contenders: Angry Birds; The Little Prince, The Red Turtle, Sausage Party, The Secret Life of Pets, Storks
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This is always a competitive category and since the HFPA doesn’t follow the rules of submissions the way the Academy does, we often see left-field choices here. I’m predicting Brazil’s Aquarius to fit that bill as a response to the country’s selection committee not choosing it to represent Brazil at the Oscars. Another Brazilian effort, Chatô, King of Brazil, is a possibility. Don’t be surprised if Neruda (Chile) or The Handmaiden (South Korea) land a spot.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Aquarius, Brazil
Elle, France
Toni Erdmann, Germany
The Salesman, Iran
Julieta, Spain

Other Contenders: Chatô, King of Brazil (Brazil), Desierto (Mexico), The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland), Tonio (Netherlands), Afterimage (Poland), The Idol (Palestine), From Afar (Venezuela), Sand Storm (Israel), The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina), I Am Not Madame Bovary (China), Neruda (Chile), The Handmaiden (South Korea)
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The global love for Lin-Manual Miranda could put Moana in here, even though he’s not the composer of the film’s score. This category is often braver than most which is why I have more eclectic choices than traditional ones. Arrival, Jackie, and Nocturnal Animals fit that.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

Arrival
Jackie
Lion
Moana
Nocturnal Animals

Other Contenders: Finding Dory, Loving, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
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The HFPA likes its stars here even though they don’t have any production numbers. Recent winners like Lady Gaga, Cher and Madonna show that they at least want them to show up.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

“Audition,” La La Land
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“Try Everything,” Zootopia

Other Contenders: “No Dames,” Hail, Caesar!; “Runnin’,” Hidden Figures; “We Know the Way,” Moana; “I’m So Humble,” Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping; “The Great Beyond,” Sausage Party; “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street

The Golden Globe nominations will be announced on Monday, December 12th at 5:15am PST.