Golden Globe Predictions (Motion Picture and TV)
The first televised awards of Oscar season is upon us, the 76th Golden Globe Awards, which will be handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association on Sunday, January 6th.
76th Golden Globe Awards: How to Watch; Order of Awards
Although the Globes can often go their own way with some of their wins, they can also be the starting point for a sweep for others. Just last year we saw the unprecedented run of all four film acting winners begin their run here that took them all the way to the Dolby stage. Could that happen again? It might, but I suspect we’ll see some more traditional variance in the Motion Picture categories.
Chadwick Boseman, Halle Berry, Dick Van Dyke among Golden Globes presenters
In Television, the HFPA is well known for going for the brand new, the first-season shows that make a splash and sometimes those that don’t but settle well with the less-than-100 member group.
‘Vice,’ ‘The Favourite,’ ‘Green Book’ ‘A Star Is Born’ lead 76th Golden Globe Awards nominations
Here are my predictions for the 76th Golden Globe Awards in Motion Picture and Television.
MOTION PICTURE
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Will win: A Star Is Born
Spoiler: BlacKkKlansman
A Star Is Born should easily take this. Its predecessor (the 1976 version) won this on the Comedy/Musical side. Watch out for BlacKkKlansman though, as the only other film here also nominated for Best Director.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Will win: The Favourite
Spoiler: Vice
Crazy tough category. Mary Poppins Returns and Green Book both seem like viable contenders, with multiple nominations elsewhere but I’m sticking with The Favourite (even though it goes against the Director validation I just made) and Vice, the most-nominated film, as the spoiler. It could flip but I think the bad reviews for Vice post-nomination announcement might have an impact.
Best Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (ROMA)
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
If the Hollywood Foreign Press Association allowed foreign language films to compete in the top two Motion Picture categories we’d probably be able to call it for ROMA and Cuarón. As it is, Cuarón should be able to win his second Best Director Golden Globe here. Cooper and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) are right on his tale though.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Will win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
This is kind of a toss-up. The 1976 version of A Star Is Born dominated, winning (at the time) the most Golden Globes by a single film with 5. That included Best Actor. Malek feels like he’s got more behind him, especially since the HFPA can, and will, award ASIB elsewhere.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Will win: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Spoiler: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Will win: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
The Golden Globes is littered with juicy star turns by singers trumping Oscar favorites. Madonna beating Frances McDormand comes to mind. Gaga is already an acting winner by the HFPA so be prepared for another ‘100 people in a room’ speech.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Will win: Christian Bale (Vice)
Spoiler: Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)
Bale should be able to sail through here. Even most of the worst reviews of the film laud his performance. Miranda could find his way in but he feels like a distant second (or even third if Viggo Mortensen is a player).
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Will win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Spoiler: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
TOUGH. Really tough. Both Colman and Blunt are previous winners, Blunt is a multi-nominee and beloved by the HFPA in a way she never has been with the Oscars. The Favourite is the more Oscar-y choice so I’m going with Colman but a Blunt win would make perfect sense.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Will win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Regrettably, this feels like it will be a makeup win for Ali after losing the Globe for Moonlight. Oddly enough, he lost to pretty-boy
and non-Oscar nominated Aaron-Taylor Johnson. Which makes Chalamet a perfect foil here unless they side with critics and go for Richard E. Grant.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Will win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Spoiler: Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King and Amy Adams go head to head in both Motion Picture and Television categories and I suspect they will split their wins. The Globes love Adams, with two wins and nine nominations. King is a three-time nominee with her two this year. She is by far the critics fave but as we just saw last year, the televised awards could split from them once again and this could be the beginning of Adams’ anointment.
Best Screenplay
Will win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
Spoiler: Adam McKay (Vice)
The two juiciest, wordiest scripts should be the only contenders here. I could see it going either way.
Best Score
Will win: Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
Spoiler: Marc Shaiman (Mary Poppins Returns)
This is Black Panther’s best shot a win, especially in the face of the snub of If Beale Street Could Talk. First Man might be the spoiler here but I suspect it’s more likely to be Mary Poppins Returns.
Best Original Song
Will win: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
Spoiler: “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’)
There’s no way and I mean NO WAY that Gaga loses this.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Will win: Incredibles 2
Spoiler: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
The HFPA can be kind of basic when it comes to animated films so Incredibles 2 makes more sense than the edgy, critics favorite Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Will win: ROMA (Mexico)
Spoiler: Capernaum (Lebanon)
This is ROMA’s, full stop.
TELEVISION
Television Series – Drama
Will win: Pose
Spoiler: Bodyguard
Actor in a Series – Drama
Will win: Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
Spoiler: Billy Porter (Pose)
Actress in a Series – Drama
Will win: Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
Spoiler: Julia Roberts (Homecoming)
Television Series – Comedy/Musical
Will win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Spoiler: Kidding
Actor in a Series – Comedy/Musical
Will win: Jim Carrey (Kidding)
Spoiler: Sasha Baron Cohen (Who Is America?)
Actress in a Series – Comedy/Musical
Will win: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Spoiler: Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
Limited Series or Movie
Will win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Spoiler: A Very English Scandal
Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will win: Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Spoiler: Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal)
Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will win: Amy Adams (Sharp Objects)
Spoiler: Regina King (Seven Seconds)
Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited Series or TV Movie
Will win: Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal)
Spoiler: Henry Winkler (Barry)
Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited Series or TV Movie
Will win: Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Spoiler: Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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