Golden Globe Predictions – Television

The Golden Globe Awards are this weekend and Amanda Spears is here with her surefire winner predictions in all of the television categories. Can Succession top The Crown? Is Chernobyl an undeniable frontrunner? Will Fleabag run the Globes like it did at the Emmys?

DRAMA

There is only one new show Apple TV’s The Morning Show amongst the Drama nominees. And with Game of Thrones snubbed it gives three series a unique chance to win for a second season. But what about The Crown? The Crown previously won Best TV Drama Series and Best TV Drama Actress for Claire Foy (2017). But with a new cast and more nominations than ever The Crown 2.0 could reign once more. 

When making predictions for the Golden Globes on the television side its best to use a plus one strategy. For example: The Handmaid’s Tale won Best Drama Series and Elisabeth Moss also picked up Best Actress in 2018. Also, the Globes love to spread the wealth—awarding multiple series, stars, and networks.  Another rule to follow they typically award performers from nominated series.

Best Television Series – Drama

1. Succession
2. The Crown
3. The Morning Show
4. Big Little Lies
5. Killing Eve

Look for Succession to succeed. In a year of so-so freshman shows Succession improved in quality and turned into must see tv. The Crown, should be at a disadvantage competing for its third season but with an entirely new cast they could default to one of their favorite series.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama

1. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
2. Olivia Colman, The Crown
3. Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
4. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
5. Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

This race is a lot closer than it appears. Aniston is a star and the Globes LOVE to award celebrities in the television categories. But Colman, is one of their favorites with two past wins: Best TV Supporting Actress for The Night Manager (2017) and Best Film Comedy or Musical Actress for The Favourite (2019). Colman gave one of the best acceptance speeches of the night last year and who could blame the HFPA for wanting an encore performance.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama

1. Brian Cox, Succession
2. Tobias Menzies, The Crown
3. Billy Porter, Pose
4. Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
5. Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Cox, and his daddy-dearest devilishly good performance should walk away the winner. Menzies, earned his nomination large in part for his heartbreaking, thought provoking work in the episode “Moondust.” Menzies gives a sympathetic portrayal as Prince Philip giving voters the polar opposite of Cox’s performance in Succession. But if Succession is about to succeed as Best TV Drama Series, Cox is most likely going along for the ride.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
2. Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
3. Toni Collette, Unbelievable
4. Emily Watson, Chernobyl
5. Patricia Arquette, The Act

Streep is the obvious choice—she’s one of the HFPA’s favorite actresses and this is one of the only categories (excluding Best TV Comedy or Drama Actress) she hasn’t won. But the Globes don’t always love to award the obvious choice. Enter Carter who’s at a career best as Princess Margaret. Carter almost steals the season out from Colman. Carter is a past seven-time nominee still looking for her first win. And with four nominations, the HFPA may not want to send The Crown home empty handed and this could be where they choose to award the series.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Andrew Scott, Fleabag
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession
4. Henry Winkler, Barry
5. Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Culkin was the only nomination Succession received last year. But with a who’s-who of comedic performances and Skarsgård in the mix he’ll probably once again walk away empty handed.

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COMEDY

The HFPA loves to award Golden Globes to award the new hot show, show’s with buzz and show’s that are making news. And on the comedy side this makes predicting who will win actually very easy this year—Fleabag. But Fleabag, debuted months ago—could there be room for another series to possibly upset.

When making predictions for the Golden Globes on the television side its best to use a plus one strategy. For example: The Kominsky Method won Best Comedy or Musical Series and Michael Douglas also picked up Best Actor last year. Also, the Globes love to spread the wealth—awarding multiple series, stars, and networks.  Another rule to follow they typically award performers from nominated series.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

1. Fleabag
2. The Politician
3. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Barry
5. The Kominsky Method

While the Globes typically LOVE to award new shows it’s hard to see any result but Fleabag walking away the winner. However, they should be on the lookout for Ryan Murphy’s The Politician as the only new show in the race the Globes could default to one of their favorite producers latest series. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

1. Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
2. Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
3. Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
4. Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida
5. Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll

This is as close to a sure thing as one can be. Helping Waller-Bridge is no one since Sarah Jessica Parker for Sex and the City (1999-2001) has won this category three years in a row. And even though Mrs. Maisel did just debut its third season it would be difficult to believe Brosnahan would upset Waller-Bridge (at least at this awards show). Applegate, Dunst and Lyonne would be more competitive if their respective series had received a nomination. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

1. Ben Platt, The Politician
2. Paul Rudd, Living With Yourself
3. Bill Hader, Barry
4. Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
5. Ramy Youssef, Ramy

Platt and his series are both nominated for the freshman series. But the lack of nominations for its famous supporting ladies: Gwyneth Paltrow and Globes favorite Jessica Lange could be the series and its stars’ downfall. Lookout for Rudd and his multiple performances could stage an upset even without the series nominated.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Andrew Scott, Fleabag
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession
4. Henry Winkler, Barry
5. Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Scott was snubbed at the Emmys which gives the HFPA the opportunity to do something they LOVE—correct the Emmys mistake.  After Chloe Sevigny was snubbed by the Emmys for Big Love the Golden Globes relished correcting this mistake (2010). And when Matt Bomer shockingly lost the Emmy for The Normal Heart the Golden Globes proved kinder once again (2015). Scott easily fits this archetype after being the only cast member of Fleabag snubbed by the Emmys.

****The supporting categories included in each section as the HFPA has drama, comedy, limited series’ and TV movie nominees compete there together.

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LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

The Golden Globes are influencers when it comes to the Academy Awards held a month later. A win can propel a film to front runner status. But they do not have the same power on the television side and this gives the HFPA the opportunity to do whatever they want making for some truly remarkable moments. However, after the shocking snub on When They See Us and its star Jharrel Jerome the Limited Series race will be more predictable than exciting.

When making predictions for the Golden Globes on the television side its best to use a plus one strategy. For example: The Assassination of Gianni Versace won Best Limited Series/TV Movie and Darren Criss also picked up Best Actor last year. Also, the Globes love to spread the wealth—awarding multiple series, stars, and networks.  Another rule to follow they typically award performers from nominated series.

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Chernobyl
2. Unbelievable
3. Fosse/Verdon
4. The Loudest Voice
5. Catch-22

A Limited Series about a man-made catastrophe that takes place in the Soviet Union—even before Chernobyl’s Emmy win its Golden Globe fate was sealed. It would be hard to see the Hollywood Foreign Press passing on the chance to award this series. Unbelievable, overperformed but a series win seems out of reach.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
2. Merritt Wever, Unbelievable
3. Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable
4. Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great
5. Joey King, The Act

Easiest win to predict of the night—Williams will add a Golden Globe to the Emmy and TCA Award she’s already won for her portrayal of Gwen Verdon. Wever, received her first Globe nomination for her soft-spoken detective trying to solve a series of rape cases. Dever, is the only actress to appear in every episode of Unbelievable. While she missed out on a nomination for her work in Booksmart her co-star, Beanie Feldstein did not. But the HFPA obviously saw the film and this could help Dever pull off a win. This similar situation helped Olivia Colman win Best TV Supporting Actress for the Night Manager (2017) as her Lobster co-star Colin Farrell was nominated on the film side. The Globes do love a two for the price of one.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Jared Harris, Chernobyl
2. Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy
4. Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice
5. Christopher Abbott, Catch-22

Harris, will win his first major award. Rockwell, like Dever above, could benefit from appearing in films JoJo Rabbit and Richard Jewell. But like Bob Fosse himself he will likely walk away empty handed.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
2. Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
3. Toni Collette, Unbelievable
4. Emily Watson, Chernobyl
5. Patricia Arquette, The Act

While this appears to be a race between Carter and Streep when you combine all supporting players into one category its best to expect surprises. Enter Collette, whose Limited Series received four nominations. And given how much the HFPA loves to spread the wealth its possible they don’t want to send the series home empty handed. This gives Collette the chance to upset.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

1. Andrew Scott, Fleabag
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl
3. Kieran Culkin, Succession
4. Henry Winkler, Barry
5. Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Like son, like father. Skarsgård’s son Alexander won this award two years ago (2018) for Big Little Lies. If the Globes are in love with Chernobyl, Skarsgård could benefit. Scott’s road to victory could be problematic as it has been a decade since Chris Colfer won for Glee (2010).