Gotham Awards Predictions: Will ‘The Favourite’ be the favorite?

Can Barry Jenkins make it two for two? Two years ago Moonlight began its critics’ award run at the Gotham Awards and carried it all the way to the Academy Awards where it won Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor. 

Last year, Call Me By Your Name and Get Out were the big winners with both going on to win Oscars for Adapted and Original Screenplay, respectively, as well as Best Picture nominations. 

This year, the race for Best Feature is between Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk and Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite. I’m keen to lean towards The Favourite here since the film also earned a Best Screenplay nomination (Beale Street did not, but then no adaptations did).

The 2018 Best Actress nominating committee also voted to award a special Gotham Jury Award to Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz for their ensemble performance in The Favourite. Interestingly enough, this was also a juried prize that Moonlight won two years ago. 

Speaking of Best Actress, this is going to be very interesting and possibly very telling. Even though the Gotham Awards consist of very small nominating committees, The Wife‘s Glenn Close getting in here (as she did at the Spirit Awards) could begin the path that Julianne Moore took in 2014 for Still Alice, a film and performance that finally won her the Academy Award. I’m going to predict Close here but with Toni Collette in Hereditary as a very possible spoiler. 

Breakthrough Actor is the most exciting category. Not only is it entirely actresses, they represent some of the most lauded performances of the year. I can make a case for any one of them: Yalitza Aparicio, Elsie Fisher, Helena Howard, KiKi Layne or Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie to win. I’m going with Aparicio but really, it could be any of these incredible actresses. Last year, Timothée Chalamet won for Call Me By Your Name and went on to earn a Best Actor Academy Award nomination. 

IFP members will determine the Gotham Audience Award with nominees comprised of the 15 nominated films in the Best Feature, Best Documentary, and Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award categories. All IFP current, active members were eligible to vote. 

Nominees were selected by committees of film critics, journalists, festival programmers, and film curators. Separate juries of writers, directors, actors, producers, editors and others directly involved in making films determined the final Gotham Award recipients.

As previously announced, tributes are set for Rachel Weisz, Willem Dafoe, Paul Greengrass and Jon Kamen. 

The 2018 Gotham Awards will take place today, Monday, November 26 at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City and will be live-streamed on the group’s Facebook page at 6pm ET / 3pm PT.

Here are my predictions for tonight’s awards.

BEST FEATURE

The Favourite – PREDICTED WINNER
Yorgos Lanthimos, director; Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos, producers (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

First Reformed
Paul Schrader, director; Jack Binder, Greg Clark, Victoria Hill, Gary Hamilton, Deepak Sikka, Christine Vachon, David Hinojosa, Frank Murray, producers (A24)

If Beale Street Could Talk
Barry Jenkins, director; Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy, Barry Jenkins, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Megan Ellison, producers (Annapurna Pictures)

Madeline’s Madeline
Josephine Decker, director; Krista Parris, Elizabeth Rao, producers (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

The Rider
Chloé Zhao, director; Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Mollye Asher, Chloé Zhao, producers (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Bisbee ‘17
Robert Greene, producer; Douglas Tirola, Susan Bedusa, Bennett Elliott, producers (4th Row Films)

Hale County This Morning, This Evening
RaMell Ross, director; RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim, producers (The Cinema Guild)

Minding the Gap
Bing Liu, director; Diane Quon, Bing Liu, producers (Hulu & Magnolia Pictures)

Shirkers
Sandi Tan, director; Sandi Tan, Jessica Levin, Maya Rudolph, producers (Netflix)

Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – PREDICTED WINNER
Morgan Neville, director; Morgan Neville, Caryn Capotosto, Nicholas Ma, producers (Focus Features)

BINGHAM RAY BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD

Ari Aster for Hereditary (A24)
Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade (A24) – PREDICTED WINNER
Jennifer Fox for The Tale (HBO)
Crystal Moselle for Skate Kitchen (Magnolia Pictures)
Boots Riley for Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna Pictures)

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
First Reformed, Paul Schrader (A24)
Private Life, Tamara Jenkins (Netflix)
Support the Girls, Andrew Bujalski (Magnolia Pictures)
Thoroughbreds, Cory Finley (Focus Features)

BEST ACTOR

Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Ben Foster in Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Ethan Hawke in First Reformed (A24) – PREDICTED WINNER
Lakeith Stanfield in Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna Pictures)

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close in The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics) – PREDICTED WINNER
Toni Collette in Hereditary (A24)
Kathryn Hahn in Private Life (Netflix)
Regina Hall in Support the Girls (Magnolia Pictures)
Michelle Pfeiffer in Where is Kyra? (Paladin and Great Point Media)

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR

Yalitza Aparicio in ROMA (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
Elsie Fisher in Eighth Grade (A24) 
Helena Howard in Madeline’s Madeline (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
KiKi Layne in If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna Pictures)
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie in Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – LONG FORM

Alias Grace, Sarah Polley, Mary Harron, Noreen Halpern, executive producers (Netflix)

Big Mouth, Nick Kroll, Andrew Goldberg, Jennifer Flackett, Mark Levin, creators; Nick Kroll, Andrew Goldberg, Mark Levin & Jennifer Flackett, executive producers (Netflix)

The End of the F***ing World, Andy Baker, Murray Ferguson, Petra Fried, Ed MacDonald, Dominic Buchanan, Jonathan Entwistle, executive producers (Netflix)

Killing Eve, Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, executive producers (BBC America) – PREDICTED WINNER

Pose, Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Steven Canals, creators; Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Nina Jacobson, Brad Simpson, Alexis Martin Woodall, Sherry Marsh, executive producers (FX Networks)

Sharp Objects, Marti Noxon, creator; Marti Noxon, Jason Blum, Gillian Flynn, Amy Adams, Jean-Marc Vallée, Nathan Ross, Gregg Fienberg, Charles Layton, Marci Wiseman, Jessica Rhoades, executive producers (HBO)

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – SHORT FORM

195 Lewis, Chanelle Aponte Pearson and Rae Leone Allen, creators
Cleaner Daze, Tess Sweet and Daniel Gambelin, creators
Distance, Alex Dobrenko, creator
The F Word, Nicole Opper, creator – PREDICTED WINNER
She’s the Ticket, Nadia Hallgren, creator