How important is a Golden Globe nomination to an Oscar win?

The Golden Globe nominations were announced on Wednesday morning and with them came the usual shock and awe of snubs and surprises. We often easily dismiss this band of less than 90 foreign journalists for making starry choices and skipping over frontrunners and favorites. Not to mention the sometimes questionable issues with race the group has with acting nominees.

This year was no different, with Da 5 Bloods coming up with zero nominations, despite being a critics’ champ (and even with Spike Lee’s kids as this year’s Ambassadors). Judas and the Black Messiah got in for Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya) and Song but missed Motion Picture. Ditto for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which earned nominations for Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis but that’s it. One Night in Miami? Acting, directing and song nominations but out of Picture. In fact, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association snubbed every Black-led film in the top Motion Picture categories.

But how important is a Golden Globe nomination for Oscar contention? The Globes are generally the first set of ‘industry’ nominations (although they aren’t industry) that separate us from critics’ season to ‘real’ awards season. It’s where the slate can often be wiped clean, making way to new contenders and snubbing others. Can a film or a performance overcome a Globe snub and win the Oscar anyway? It’s hard not to think about how 2005’s Crash wasn’t even nominated for a Best Picture Globe and then went on to shock at the Oscars. What about the flip side, where Golden Globe winners find the door shut on Oscar nomination morning? After today’s nominations with a history-making three women in Best Director, it’s hard not to think about Barbra Streisand being the first woman nominated (for Yentl), and winning, only to be shut out at the Oscars.

Both happen, and they do quite a bit. Let’s take a look at some examples that prove and break the rules.

Oscar winners who weren’t nominated at the Golden Globes

Best Picture: Crash (2005) | The Sting (1973) | Marty (1955)

*Parasite (2019) was nominated in Foreign Language Film and won

**Gandhi (1982) was nominated in Foreign Language Film and won

***Chariots of Fire (1981) was nominated in Foreign Language Film and won

Best Actor: Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful (1998)

Best Actress: Sophia Loren, Two Women (1961)

*Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008) won as Supporting Actress at Golden Globes

**Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road (2008) won as Best Actress at Golden Globes

***Patricia Neal for Hud was nominated as Supporting Actress at Golden Globes

Best S Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine (2006) | James Coburn, Affliction (1998) | Kevin Kline, A Fish Called Wanda (1988)

Best S Actress: Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock (2000) | Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny (1992) | Geena Davis, The Accidental Tourist (1988)

*Alicia Vikander was nominated for The Danish Girl in Lead Actress at Golden Globes

**Catherine Zeta-Jones was nominated for Chicago in Lead Actress at Golden Globes

Best Director: Roman Polanski, The Pianist (2002) | George Roy Hill (1973)

Best Screenplay:

Adapted – Jojo Rabbit (2019) | BlacKkKlansman (2018) | Call Me by Your Name (2017)

Original – Get Out (2017) | Milk (2008) | Little Miss Sunshine (2006)

Best Animated Film: Never happened

Best Foreign Language Film: The Secret in Their Eyes (2009) | Departures (2008) | The Counterfeiters (2007)

Best Original Score: John Corigliano, The Red Violin (1999) | Nicola Piovani, Life Is Beautiful and Stephen Warbeck, Shakespeare in Love (1998)

*in 2014 Alexandre Desplat won Oscar for The Grand Budapest Hotel, but was nominated at Golden Globes for The Imitation Game

Best Original Song: “Man or Muppet,” The Muppets (2011) | “We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3 (2010) | “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

Golden Globe winners who weren’t nominated at the Oscars

Best Picture:

Drama – The Cardinal (1963) | Spartacus (1960) | East of Eden (1955)

Musical or Comedy – The Hangover (2009) | Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) | Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2007)

Best Actor:

Drama – Jim Carrey, The Truman Show (1998) | Omar Sharif, Doctor Zhivago (1965) | Anthony Franciosa, Career (1959)

Musical or Comedy – Taron Egerton, Rocketman (2019) | James Franco, The Disaster Artist (2017) | Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version (2010)

Best Actress:

Drama – Shirley MacLaine, Madame Sousatzka (1988)

Musical or Comedy – Awkwafina, The Farewell (2019) | Amy Adams, Big Eyes (2014) | Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)

Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (2016) | Richard Benjamin, The Sunshine Boys (1975) | Richard Attenborough, Doctor Dolittle (1967; also won in 1966 for The Sand Pebbles and was snubbed by the Oscars)

Best Supporting Actress: Katharine Ross, Voyage of the Damned (1976) | Karen Black, The Great Gatsby (1974) | Hermione Gingold, Gigi (1958)

Best Director: Ben Affleck, Argo (2012) | Clint Eastwood, Bird (1988) | Barbra Streisand, Yentl (1983)

Best Screenplay: Steve Jobs (2015) | About Schmidt (2002) | The People vs. Larry Flynt (1996)

Best Animated Film: The Adventures of Tintin (2011)

Best Foreign Language Film: In the Fade (2017) | Elle (2016) | The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (2007)

Best Original Score: First Man (2019) | All Is Lost (2013) | The Painted Veil (2006)

Best Original Song: “Masterpiece”, W.E. (2011) | “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me,” Burlesque (2010) | “The Wrestler,” The Wrestler (2008)

Props to Tavish at the Awards Worthy forums for compiling the list.