Forum Oscar Poll Results – June 2014

It’s time for a new round of AwardsWatch forum Oscar poll results! As always the numbers represent the percentage of total voters choosing that film, director or performance to be nominated and we’re going to look to June to see that, while Sony Pictures Classics’ Foxcatcher is retaining its #1 spot in Best Picture predictions, the trailer for Fox Searchlight‘s Birdman has dramatically increased its numbers and it now sits at #2. The very mixed reviews from the TWC’s Big Eyes screening saw it fall quite a bit, down 13 points from last month. The Weinstein Company‘s other player, The Imitation Game, makes its mark at #10. It’s the only new entry, taking the place of Sony‘s Fury. Watch for that film to possibly make a comeback soon after the release of its first poster and trailer. Expect Paramount Pictures‘ Selma, which recently announced it will be given a 2014 Oscar qualifying run, to make a huge debut in this month’s polls.

BEST PICTURE
01. Foxcatcher – 87% (May – 78%)
02. Birdman – 81% (May – 69%)
02. Gone Girl – 81% (May – 81%)
04. Interstellar – 75% (May – 66%)
05. Inherent Vice – 73% (May – 83%)
06. Unbroken – 71% (May – 67%)
07. Big Eyes – 63% (May – 76%)
08. A Most Violent Year – 50% (May – 47%)
09. The Grand Budapest Hotel – 37% (May – 38%)
10. The Imitation Game – 35% (NEW)

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BEST DIRECTOR
The afterglow of Bennett Miller’s Best Director win at Cannes is in full effect here, with a 16 point jump and putting him in first place by a large margin. That trailer release for Birdman has increased Iñárritu’s numbers for a second place tie, replacing Tim Burton, who falls out of the top 5 entirely. A drought of any new media for Gone Girl has sent Fincher’s stock tumbling and Anderson and Jolie remain mostly the same.

01. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher – 80% (May – 64%)
02. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice – 67% (May – 67%)
02. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman – 67% (May – 59%)
04. Angelina Jolie, Unbroken – 62% (May – 61%)
05. David Fincher, Gone Girl – 47% (May – 54%)
06. Tim Burton, Big Eyes – 37%
06. Christopher Nolan, Interstellar – 37%
08. J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year – 22%
09. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel – 17%
10. Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner – 15%

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BEST ACTOR
Another Cannes bump in the form of Timothy Spall’s Best Actor win showing up here with a giant 19-point bump and vaulting him into the top 5. Carell and Keaton remain a solid and untouchable top 2 and Phoenix and Waltz see very little change in their status. Benedict Cumberbatch is juuust outside the top 5 and Unbroken’s Jack O’Donnell falls to 7th. Outside of that very little support is found for another contender.

01. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher – 86% (May – 81%)
02. Michael Keaton, Birdman – 78% (May – 71%)
03. Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice – 60% (May – 61%)
04. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes – 52% (May – 51%)
05. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner – 45%  (May – 26%)
06. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game – 44%
07. Jack O’Connell, Unbroken – 27%
08. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper – 13%
09. Michael Fassbender, Macbeth – 11%
09. Brad Pitt, Fury – 11%

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BEST ACTRESS
Lots of movement in Best Actress as Amy Adams takes a tumble after the Big Eyes screening, making room for Reese Witherspoon to claim the top spot. Lots of Oscar bloggers were diverted by the recent trailer for Witherspoon’s other 2014 drama, The Good Lie. But not us; we know her contender is Wild. Rosamund Pike saw her status rise a bit and Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams saw their percentages virtually flip-flop. Despite some Oscar bloggers insistence that Shailene Woodley is a real contender for The Fault in Our Stars, AwardsWatch is not on that train. Not yet, anyway. Expect

01. Reese Witherspoon, Wild – 78% (May – 66%)
02. Amy Adams, Big Eyes – 75% (May – 81%)
03. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl – 73% (May – 68%)
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods  – 53% (May – 36%)
05. Michelle Williams, Suite française – 39% (May – 53%)
06. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them – 26%
07. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette – 21%
08. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year – 16%
09. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars – 15%
10. Marion Cotillard, Macbeth – 14%

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The big news here is Channing Tatum rocketing into the top 5 with a whopping 26-point jump. Between the reception of Foxcatcher at Cannes and the box office of his summer sequel 22 Jump Street, hopes are high for the former stripper’s first major dramatic turn in an Oscar favorite. Not much change with the rest of the guys, with only Ruffalo seeing much change in his total numbers.

01. Edward Norton, Birdman – 78% (May – 75%)
02. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher – 77% (May – 69%)
03. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice – 64% (May – 64%)
04. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher – 52% (May – 26%)
05. Miyavi, Unbroken – 39% – (May – 39%)
06. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash – 38%
07. Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl – 30%
08. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes – 19%
09. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel – 16%
09. Logan Lerman, Fury – 16%

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
A big three-way tie for first says this category is a pretty open race. Julianne Moore’s Best Actress win at Cannes gives her the biggest jump of anyone in any category month to month, up 28 points. Still, it might be just the afterglow as it will probably be a hard nomination for her to get. Anna Kendrick saw a nice bump, up 15 points and her Into the Woods co-star Emily Blunt finds herself in the top 5 for the first time. Former frontrunner Viola Davis falls out of it, for now. Lackluster previews and trailers for Get On Up have definitely hurt her position and Laura Dern makes her play for a comeback nomination in Wild. Suffering even worse than her co-star Michelle Williams, Kristen Scott Thomas has plummeted out of the top 5 this month. Watch for Naomi Watts to possibly improve her placement next month with the release of the St. Vincent trailer this week.

01. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year – 60% (May – 59%)
01. Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods – 60% (May – 45%)
01. Emma Stone, Birdman – 60% (May – 57%)
04. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars – 44% (May – 16%)
05. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods – 28% (May – 22%)
06. Laura Dern, Wild – 24%
07. Viola Davis, Get on Up – 22%
08. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game – 21%
08. Kristin Scott Thomas, Suite Française – 21%
10. Naomi Watts, St. Vincent  – 14%

Don’t forget to join and vote in the current month’s polls!