Los Angeles Film Critics predictions: How now, ‘First Cow’?

We’re in the swing of it now. Boston and New York have already made their critics awards announcements and even though we’re just scraping the surface we’re definitely starting to see trends emerge that could be with us for the remainder of critics awards season.

Nomadland, First Cow and Da 5 Bloods are the three films that have gotten the most notices, with wins from groups like the two above as well as Florida, Chicago and Indiana with their nominations. Minari and I’m Thinking of Ending Things are also making some waves and Never Rarely Sometimes Always is surprising in the best way. But where will the Los Angeles Film Critics Association land? Will they look like what we’ve seen or will some new favorites like Sound of Metal or Promising Young Woman emerge?

LAFCA uses a weighted ballot for voting in the first round and then a runoff in the second round. Sometimes that’s where a consensus choice emerges but we also often get wild and wonderful left-field picks, especially in Best Actress where we’ve had Mary Kay Place (Diane), Yoon Jeong-hee (Poetry) and Kim Hy-ja (Mother) this last decade.

But they also often align closely to New York either with winners or runners-up so keeping a close eye on those NYFCC winners might inform where they go. New York went for First Cow in Best Film and with Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) in Best Director. I can see that repeating or, the inverse. Recent NYFCC winners like The Irishman, Roma and Lady Bird all did well at LAFCA in various categories or as runners-up soon after so a combination of First Cow and Nomadland makes sense and I’m leaning towards the latter to nab its first trifecta win but I think it’s going to be close. At least we get runners-up here.

I know we tease LA for their infamous lunch pics from years past but what of this year? Will voters be showing us their Door Dash delights while Zoom voting?

LAFCA begins their voting at 10am PT on Sunday, December 20, 2020.

Here’s how I think things might break down with the LAFCA with a few names to look out for. Note that like New York, Los Angeles is going to by a traditional calendar year eligibility so films like Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs Billie Holiday will not be contenders.

Best Picture
Prediction: Nomadland
Look out for: First Cow or Minari

Best Director
Prediction: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Look out for: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow or Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor
Prediction: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Look out for: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods or Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Actress
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Look out for: Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always or Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Look out for: Orion Lee, First Cow or Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Look out for: Amanda Seyfried, Mank or Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Screenplay
Prediction: First Cow
Look out for: Never Rarely Sometimes Always or I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Cinematography
Prediction: Nomadland
Look out for: Lovers Rock or Mank

Best Production Design
Prediction: Mank
Look out for: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Editing
Prediction: Time
Look out for: Collective or Sound of Metal

Best Music Score
Prediction: Minari
Look out for: Mank or Nomadland

Best Foreign-Language Film
Prediction: Collective
Look out for: Bacurau or Martin Eden

Best Documentary/Non-Fiction Film
Prediction: Time
Look out for: Collective or David Byrne’s American Utopia

Best Animation
Prediction: Wolfwalkers
Look out for: Soul or The Wolf House