Below are the most recent polls for the first half of March 2014.
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Foxcatcher – 78%
Gone Girl – 76%
Big Eyes – 75%
Inherent Vice – 75%
Interstellar – 71%
Unbroken – 62%
Birdman – 53%
Fury – 37%
A Most Violent Year – 33%
Suite française – 30%
The decision by Sony Pictures Classics to push Foxcatcher to 2014 looks to be a good one as it sits atop our polls, albeit just barely. Its inclusion at this year’s Cannes Film Festival will raise its profile immensely. Not far behind is David Fincher’s Gone Girl, which just released its first poster and trailer this week. Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Inherent Vice debuts high and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, starring newly Oscared Matthew McConaughey, rounds out a top 5. The numbers get scattered in the next five, with Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken finding the most support. Look for that film’s numbers to rise as the year goes on.
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Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice – 78%
David Fincher, Gone Girl – 63%
Tim Burton, Big Eyes – 58%
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher – 55%
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken – 54%
The director list matches the top five films 4/5 with Angelina Jolie taking Christopher Nolan’s spot. It’s a hedged bet for sure as Nolan has not received a Best Director nomination from the Academy so far, even in the face of box office success and industry guild support. With Jolie planning on a banner year though, it might be hard to stop her. Tim Burton will be in the hunt for his first Director nomination and previous nominees Anderson, Fincher and Miller look to repeat.
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Steve Carell, Foxcatcher – 78%
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice – 65%
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes – 56%
Michael Keaton, Birdman – 53%
Jack O’Connell, Unbroken – 41%
After six unsuccessful bids for an Emmy on the comedy series The Office, Steve Carell looks to cut his teeth on his most dramatic role to date and get an Oscar instead. Two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz is going to come for a Lead nomination and Joaquin Phoenix looks to add a fourth nod to his list and British newcomer Jack O’Connell, mostly unfamiliar to American audiences looks to break through. But most interesting is the return of Michael Keaton. Angling for his first nomination and playing an aging actor who used to be a big-time superhero star (get it?), his performance has been buzzed about like no other on this list, despite no footage and few set pics to go by.
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Amy Adams, Big Eyes – 84%
Michelle Williams, Suite française – 64%
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl – 60%
Reese Witherspoon, Wild – 46%
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods – 44%
After finally breaking out the Supporting pack and into her first Lead nomination last year, Amy Adams could have a strong narrative of being ‘due’ for a win with Big Eyes. At 33, Michelle Williams has garnered three Oscar nominations already and looks to add a fourth with her Holocaust drama. Previous winner Witherspoon is aiming for an Oscar comeback with Wild and 3-time winner and 18-time nominee Meryl Streep is going to try and add to her astonishing record playing the witch in Into the Woods.
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Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher – 73%
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice – 67%
Edward Norton, Birdman – 56%
Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl – 45%
Miyavi, Unbroken – 35%
Mark Ruffalo could have a good year with The Normal Heart on HBO (which should get him an Emmy) and his supporting turn in Foxcatcher, where he’s an early frontrunner. Previous supporting nominees Brolin and Norton are going to try and repeat and Emmy winner (and likely Tony winner come June) Neil Patrick Harris is in the hunt to fill out his EGOT with his first Oscar nomination but keep an eye out for Miyavi from Unbroken. The Japanese singer/songwriter’s film debut is already being buzzed about as one of the best of the year.
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Viola Davis, Get On Up – 62%
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year – 60%
Kristin Scott Thomas, Suite française – 54%
Emma Stone, Birdman – 49%
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods – 34%
No less than three co-stars from The Help; Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain and Emma Stone debut in the top 5. We’ll see how this pans out in the coming months. Scott Thomas is aiming for on Oscar comeback having not been nominated since her nod for The English Patient back in 1997. Recent supporting actress nominee Kendrick is hoping her role in Into the Woods gets her a second.
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