National Board of Review (NBR) preview and predictions: Will they fall in line or forge a new path?

Normally, the National Board of Review sit in the driver’s seat of awards season. They’re always the first major group to announce ‘Best in Film’ winners, sometimes just days before the New York Film Critics Circle. But the worldwide coronavirus pandemic turned everything, even critics awards, upside down.

Now, the majority of groups have announced so the freshness and newness of a group like the NBR feels almost inconsequential. Often, they are the first to see very late-breaking releases and get to tout them as winners far ahead of everyone else, who normally play catch-up in January. Think of The Post four years ago or Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell last year (guess we all should have played closer attention to that, right?).

While this year, with a reduced number of films, it seems critics’ awards have more or less started coalescing around a handful of winners: Nomadland, Chloé Zhao, Paul Raci, Youn Yuh-jung have all been consistent winners whether it’s top tier groups or regional ones. So the question is, will the NBR try and capture what they lost by moving their winners to the end of January by anointing someone or a film that hasn’t seen much (or any) love yet? I think it could happen for someone like Jodie Foster in Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian. Or any number of the mid-to-late February releases that are only now being widely seen ahead of their release like Malcolm & Marie, The United States of Billie Holiday or Judas and the Black Messiah. It’s not lost on me that those are all films about Black stories, two by Black filmmakers.

Here’s how I think it could break down for the National Board of Review when they announce on January 26 and who to watch out for.

Best Film
Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Watch out for: Nomadland

Top Ten Films (alphabetical)
01. Da 5 Bloods
02. Judas and the Black Messiah
03. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
04. Mank
05. Minari
06. News of the World
07. Nomadland
08. One Night in Miami
09. Promising Young Woman
10. Sound of Metal

Best Director
Prediction: Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Watch out for: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Best Actor
Prediction: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Watch out for: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress
Prediction: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Watch out for: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Watch out for: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Watch out for: Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian

Best Breakthrough Performance
Prediction: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Watch out for: Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

Best Ensemble Cast
Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Watch out for: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Directorial Debut
Prediction: Regina King – One Night in Miami
Watch out for: Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Promising Young Woman
Watch out for: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Nomadland
Watch out for: First Cow

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Another Round
Watch out for: Bacurau

Best Documentary
Prediction: Dick Johnson is Dead
Watch out for: Boys State

Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Soul
Watch out for: Wolfwalkers