National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) predictions

The National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) announces their winners tomorrow, January 8.

Awards go for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography, and, should the Society choose to award these, Best Nonfiction Film, Best Foreign-Language Film, Best Production Design, Best Experimental work, Film Heritage award and “Film Awaiting American Distribution.”

Any film that opens in the U.S. during the year 2021, in theaters or on streaming platforms, is eligible for consideration. There is no nomination process; submissions are not necessary. Unlike many groups, the NSFC reveals not only the winner but #2 and #3 spots with vote totals that show just how close some races are. Last year, for example, Nomadland beat out First Cow for Best Picture by just two votes, 52 to 50. Sometimes there are complete blowouts, like in 2017 when Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) beat out Michael Stuhlbarg for his trio of films that year (Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water, The Post) 62-25.

I expect Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World to be top contenders with the org chaired by Justin Chang of the Los Angeles Times and with members of some of the most prestigious newspapers, magazines, outlets as well as top tier freelancers like Carlos Aguilar and Molly Haskell.

Here are my predictions for their winners and potential runners-up and/or spoilers.

Best Picture
Prediction: Drive My Car
Runner–up/Spoiler: The Power of the Dog

Best Director
Prediction: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner–up/Spoiler: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Best Screenplay
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Runner–up/Spoiler: Ryusuke Hamaguchi  and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

Best Actor
Prediction: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Runner–up/Spoiler: Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Best Actress
Prediction: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Runner–up/Spoiler: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner–up/Spoiler: Anders Danielsen Lie, The Worst Person in the World

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner–up/Spoiler: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Best Foreign-Language Film
Prediction: The Worst Person in the World
Runner–up/Spoiler: Petite Maman

Best Nonfiction Film
Prediction: Summer of Soul
Runner–up/Spoiler: Flee

Best Cinematography
Prediction: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Runner–up/Spoiler: Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Production Design
Prediction: West Side Story
Runner–up/Spoiler: The Tragedy of Macbeth

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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