New York Film Critics predictions: Will they lead or follow?

In a normal year, either the National Board of Review or the New York Film Critics Circle is the first major group to announce their film awards but this is far from a normal year. The Boston Society of Film Critics usurped that crown, announcing their winners on December 13, with Nomadland winning Best Film and newcomer Sidney Flanigan surprising with a Best Actress win for Never Rarely Sometimes Always.

Will New York, who often likes to set the pace rather than follow it, also pick those two and maybe even more? Were they likely going to anyway? There’s a high possibility they will but, as with Boston, voting can contain multiple rounds where a film or performance that starts out strong eventually peters out until a consensus winner is achieved. In 2012, Rachel Weisz’s Best Actress win was in part a result of the three-way fight between the Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence and Emmanuelle Riva groups, or like when Michael Keaton surprisingly won Best Actor for Spotlight, or in 1998 when Cameron Diaz won over Fernanda Montenegro and Renée Zellweger contingents. These were revealed by voters after the fact until the org ruled to stop any information about how their voting breaks down.

Here’s how I think things might break down with the NYFCC with a few names to look out for. Note that New York is going to by a traditional calendar year eligibility so films like Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs Billie Holiday will not be contenders.

Best Picture
Prediction: Nomadland
Look out for: First Cow or Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Director
Prediction: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Look out for: Steve McQueen, Lovers Rock or Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

Best Screenplay
Prediction: First Cow
Look out for: Minari or I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Actor
Prediction: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Look out for: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal or Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Best Actress
Prediction: Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Look out for: Carrie Coon, The Nest or Julia Garner, The Assistant

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…
Look out for: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal or Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Look out for: Amanda Seyfried, Mank or Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (watch out in case they bump her up to lead)

Best Animated Film
Prediction: Wolfwalkers
Look out for: Soul or The Wolf House

Best Foreign Film
Prediction: Bacurau
Look out for: Martin Eden or Another Round

Best Non-Fiction Film
Prediction: Collective
Look out for: City Hall or Time

Best Cinematographer
Prediction: Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)
Look out for: Lovers Rock (Shabier Kirchner)

Best First Film
Prediction: The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)
Look out for: Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell) or The Father (Florian Zeller)