PGA Preview: A Tale of Three Films

With the Screen Actors Guild kicking off the industry awards last night (aka, the real road to the Oscars), the Producers Guild have their say tonight and the race is between Golden Globe Comedy and SAG Ensemble winner American Hustle, Golden Globe Drama and BFCA Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave and mega-blockbuster Gravity. At this point in the race any of these are realistic contenders here and the winner here will either focus the Oscar race (if Hustle wins), give us a two-horse race (if 12 Years wins) or completely toss it in the air (if Gravity wins).

As we’ve seen before, a film can be the critical favorite and win awards like the Golden Globe and/or BFCA but falter when it comes to the guild and industry awards. They are a different group of people, a different mindset and often a different purpose. In 2010 The Social Network was the dominating film until the guilds turned everything around and crowned The King’s Speech with SAG, PGA and DGA wins.

What’s great about this year is that there hasn’t been a single film that has dominated anything so far. Critically, there isn’t a stinker in the bunch; 12 Years a Slave and Gravity both have 97% ratings on Rotten Tomatoes and American Hustle sits at 93%. 12 Years a Slave won a slew of 2nd tier critics circle Best Film awards, Gravity won Best Picture with the Los Angeles Film Critics (a co-win with Her) and American Hustle took New York.

With the winner of the PGA tonight will come momentum, momentum need to carry the film for the next six weeks to Oscar night. The Directors Guild will decide next week and prevailing thought is that Alfonso Cuarón will win for Gravity. So what, pray tell, happens if Hustle of 12 wins PGA tonight and Gravity wins DGA next week? A monkey wrench if there ever was one, that’s what. Early in the season many people were predicting a Picture/Director split at the Oscars between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, respectively. That could still happen but since Cuarón is nominated for four Oscar himself they could easily eschew giving him Best Director and tossing him a bone of Best Film Editing instead. Then there’s BAFTA; all three films are again up against each other. Gravity is considered a British production, 12 Years a Slave seems almost locked but then if American Hustle prevails this and next week it could win at BAFTA too.

The Gold Rush Gang has voted  and their predictions of the winner of tonight’s Producers Guild Award breaks down like this:

American Hustle – Evan, Dennis, Richard, Michael, Long, Erik, Kenneth, Peter, Beth

12 Years a Slave – Ben, Cédric

So, either prevailing thought will win or two people will have bragging rights. Tell us what you think!