Producers Guild of America (PGA) Preview and Predictions

The race continues with the Producers Guild of America (PGA) announcing their 10 Best Picture nominees tomorrow and it could shine a light on the real Oscar contenders and real pretenders. Or, as the season has gone so far, could really confuse things even more. Right now there looks to be a handful of films that are pretty solid. Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short and The Martian are easy calls (or are they?) with indie Room and soon-to-be biggest movie of all time Star Wars: The Force Awakens rounding out the top tier group.

Nest up are critical hits that have either opened late, performed well but not great or are potential sleepers here. Sicario, which just earned an ACE Eddie nomination this morning over some major favorites (like Spotlight and Bridge of Spies) is the film to watch right now. The correlation of ACE and PGA is very strong so Sicario should probably even be bumped up to the top tier.

Fighting it out for the last spot are a handful of films that have showed up in big places (like Beasts,  Trumbo and Compton at SAG) or have a prestige director (Spielberg for Bridge of Spies) or are an Oscar studio’s main or only push (Brooklyn from Fox Searchlight).

Most likely:

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
Star Wars, Episode VII: The Force Awakens

One foot in, one foot out:

Carol
The Revenant
Sicario

Fighting for the last spot:

Beasts of No Nation
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Forced to choose, I’d say that Straight Outta Compton probably stands the best chance to be the film that hits the last spot but boy is that going to be a blockbuster-heavy bunch. What of Trumbo? Director Jay Roach is a multiple Emmy and PGA-winner…for television. Netflix has been pushing Beasts of No Nation hard though so we’ll find out tomorrow.