Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Male Actor in a Drama Series

This year’s group of actors vying for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series have done incredible work. They’ve made us laugh, they’ve made us cry – in some cases, we’ve watched them with our blood pressure high as they tap into their performance, keeping us on the edge of our seat. It’s a crowded year, though, so no one should be considered a lock in this category.

Pose has not managed to get any SAG nominations for its first two seasons, but its third and final may be impossible to overlook. That’s why it seems as though Billy Porter, who plays Pray Tell on the show, could very well score his first individual SAG nomination this year. Having been Emmy-nominated for all three seasons of the show (and winning for the first season!), Porter looks to gain recognition from his acting peers for the show’s final season. Pose is also very competitive in the Ensemble category which will only boost Porter’s chances.

The next actor could be making history in the category. Squid Game’s Lee Jung-jae could be the first actor from a foreign-language series to be nominated in this category. It wouldn’t be too much of a surprise given the show’s recent success at the AFI Awards (received the Special Award) and the Critics Choice Awards (there’s a whole new category now for Best Foreign Language Series). Lee was nominated at the Golden Globes for his performance (he lost to Succession‘s Jeremy Strong), so there’s quite a bit of accolades being thrown his way, so be on the lookout for his name when the SAG nominations come out.

There are some series that are so good, multiple actors from the show should be considered for this award. While the SAGs have nominated two men from the same show in a single year multiple times, they’ve never nominated three actors from the same show in a single year; could this be the first? Succession recently wrapped up its critically acclaimed third season, a ferocious season that allowed all the actors to really show their skill. Jeremy Strong is the closest actor to being considered a lock in this category, but Succession has never been nominated for a SAG Award before. Could this mean that no one from the show could get in? It’s highly doubtful, given the success of the show (especially at the 2020 Emmys) and the rave reviews of the performances. Brian Cox is second in line at a nomination for his portrayal of Logan Roy and is likely to get in. It’s important to remember that there is no distinction between lead and supporting at the SAG Awards, they have one category that places both together. Could this mean that Kieran Culkin could also make it in? It’s possible, but the SAGs have never nominated three actors from the same show in this category, which makes this just a possibility – not a sure thing.

Looking to spoil Succession’s fun is previous SAG winner Sterling K. Brown from This Is Us. The actor has been nominated five times for the show so far, and could very well earn another nomination. Another major spoiler in this category could be Billy Crudup for his work in the second season of AppleTV+’s The Morning Show. The ensemble of The Morning Show seeks a nod in the Ensemble category which could mean that Crudup could come in and take a nomination from someone else (including any of the Succession actors!).

My predictions for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:

1. Jeremy Strong, Succession
2. Brian Cox, Succession
3. Billy Porter, Pose
4. Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
5. Kieran Culkin, Succession

Spoiler: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show