Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination predictions: Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Kodi Smit–McPhee (The Power of the Dog) probably didn’t see himself going into this season as being the overwhelming critics’ favorite and neither did pundits, but he is and here we are. He’s a lock here but the real question is, can his co–star Jesse Plemons finally show up and give us a Sam Rockwell/Woody Harrelson type of race?

Speaking of dual/dueling co–stars, could the Belfast boys Ciarán Hinds and Jamie Dornan repeat their dual success at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and find themselves nominated side by side by SAG too? It’s very possible, I think it could happen. I still maintain that Dornan is this year’s most likely candidate to hit every precursor and then get snubbed at the Oscars. Not in the same way that Taron Egerton or Daniel Brühl did but more like Richard Gere in Chicago.

Troy Kotsur (CODA) has been one of the season’s brightest and best surprises to becoming a real contender, having won a handful of critics’ prizes already and scooping up GG and CCA nods. He’s the film’s heart, even more than its lead or Best Actress Oscar winner Marlee Matlin, who has strangely been mostly absent in the awards race so far.

Ben Affleck has never been nominated for an individual SAG award, but he’s been in three films that landed Cast nods, including two that won (Shakespeare in Love, Argo) and then also went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. His surprise nomination at the Golden Globes for George Clooney’s The Tender Bar raised my eyebrow, enough to think he could score a nomination here, as well. 2021 was kind of a big year for Affleck, both in his personal and professional life. He split from girlfriend Ana de Armas and the rebounded with Dunkin’ Donuts and his ‘Bennifer’ ex Jennifer Lopez in one of the year’s wildest throwbacks of early 2000s nostalgia. But he also hit highs with two supporting performances in films: in the aforementioned The Tender Bar, where he plays a wise and rascally uncle, but even more so for The Last Duel, playing Count Pierre d’Alençon, a deliciously hedonistic drunk and horny 14^th century lord with bleached blonde hair and a blonde goatee right out of a 2000s band like Smash Mouth. Critics went to bat for the former Batman with his comeback The Way Back, but the industry didn’t bite. I think they might this time.

Last year, SAG went 3/5 with Oscar with Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods and Jared Leto in The Little Things out for Paul Raci in for Sound of Metal and LaKeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah.

Here are my predictions for Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture. Nominations will be announced January 12.

• Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
• Jamie Dornan – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Spoilers: Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos