Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards preview and predictions

Predicting the winners for the Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards, especially in film, is an odd thing. With so many screenplays not nominated due to guild eligibility issues yet Oscar-nominated anyway, it becomes less a precursor to the Academy Award sometimes and more of a ‘what is in 2nd place?’ venture.

That’s definitely the case this year high-profile Oscar-nominated titles like Nomadland, Minari and The Father unable to earn a spot with the WGA but with no such issues in their hunt for Oscar gold.

For Original Screenplay (Film) we have four Oscar nominees and one eclectic outlier in Palm Springs, which was replaced by the WGA-ineligible Minari at the Academy Awards. This is a contest between the two Oscar frontrunners: Promising Young Woman by Emerald Fennell and The Trial of the Chicago 7 by Aaron Sorkin, the only two scripts written singularly by their directors. They’re also the only two films to have hit every precursor, and so far have split the awards: Chicago 7 won the Golden Globe and PYW won Critics Choice. But BAFTA and WGA are the only guild and industry awards leading up to the Oscar so the stronger film here will either be the film that’s in the #1 or #2 spot for Best Picture. I think Chicago 7 has a stronger claim to that, despite Sorkin’s director miss. But in terms of the WGA, he’s a legend. He’s a 15-time nominee here, across film and television, and a winner two times over. Oh, and a lifetime achievement winner here. The cards seem stacked in his favor over a very new newcomer in Fennell. But, can her electric screenplay and unique vision be what the Writers Guild is looking for this year? Well, keep this in mind: the WGA winner for Original Screenplay becoming the Oscar winner has a very strong record. Three times in the last decade the WGA winner didn’t win the Oscar, in the previous decade only twice. Only one time was the WGA winner (2000’s You Can Count on Me) and Oscar winner (Almost Famous) both nominated. In that case, Almost Famous was closer to Best Picture than You Can Count on Me. I’m going to go with Promising Young Woman here as both are so close in Best Picture with The Trial of the Chicago 7 just coming short.

Adapted Screenplay is much more interesting in that the Oscar frontrunner, Nomadland, was ineligible, and two of the nominees here were snubbed by the Oscar writing branch, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and News of the World. we can count both of those out right off the bat. That opens the door for three screenplays for films that aren’t even nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami and The White Tiger. Only the first two earned Oscar nominations other than for their screenplays so logic would give them the edge. Looking at the last ten years of WGA, they’ve gone with the eventual Oscar winner when given the chance except once, when Can You Ever Forgive Me? beat BlacKkKlansman here. The two occurrences when the eventual Oscar winner wasn’t nominated here – 2016’s Arrival (Moonlight was nominated in original at WGA, where it won) and 2013’s Captain Phillips (12 Years a Slave wasn’t here) – the Oscar winner also won Best Picture. So what was closer to a Best Picture nomination, Borat or One Night in Miami? Both films have acting nominations and were also nominated by the Producers Guild but I’m giving the edge to Kemp Powers for adapting his own play, One Night in Miami.

In television, I expect Ted Lasso and The Queen’s Gambit to continue their spring reign as they march towards Emmy success later this season with Lasso possibly going 3/3. With 10 nominations and two wins, Better Call Saul has fared better at the WGA than anywhere else, where’s it’s always nominated but never wins. It has four chances here including three nominations in Episodic Drama alone. It has Last Week Tonight with John Oliver should be able to sail to its fifth win in a row here.

The Writers Guild of America awards will be held in a joint virtual ceremony, from Los Angeles and New York, on March 21, 2021. Here are my predictions.

FILM

Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King, Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas; Warner Bros.

Palm Springs, Screenplay by Andy Siara, Story by Andy Siara & Max Barbakow; Hulu

Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell; Focus Features [PREDICTED WINNER]

Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder, Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance; Amazon Studios

The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin; Netflix

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern, Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad, Based on Characters Created by Sacha Baron Cohen; Amazon Studios

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Screenplay by Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Based on the Play Written by August Wilson; Netflix

News of the World, Screenplay by Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies, Based upon the Novel by Paulette Jiles; Universal Pictures

One Night in Miami, Screenplay by Kemp Powers, Based on the Stage Play “One Night in Miami” by Kemp Powers; Amazon Studios [PREDICTED WINNER]

The White Tiger, Screenplay by Ramin Bahrani, Based on the Book “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga; Netflix

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Written by Jack Youngelson; Amazon Studios [PREDICTED WINNER]

The Dissident, Written by Mark Monroe and Bryan Fogel; Briarcliff Entertainment

Herb Alpert Is…, Written by John Scheinfeld; Abramorama

Red Penguins, Written by Gabe Polsky; Universal Pictures

Totally Under Control, Written by Alex Gibney; Neon

TELEVISION

Drama Series

Better Call Saul, Written by Ann Cherkis, Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Ariel Levine, Heather Marion, Thomas Schnauz, Gordon Smith, Alison Tatlock; AMC

The Boys, Written by Eric Kripke, Ellie Monahan, Anslem Richardson, Craig Rosenberg, Michael Saltzman, Rebecca Sonnenshine; Amazon Prime Video

The Crown, Written by Peter Morgan, Jonathan Wilson; Netflix [PREDICTED WINNER]

The Mandalorian, Written by Rick Famuyiwa, Jon Favreau, Dave Filoni; Disney Plus

Ozark, Written by Laura Deeley, Bill Dubuque, Paul Kolsby, Miki Johnson, Chris Mundy, John Shiban, Ning Zhou, Martin Zimmerman; Netflix

Comedy Series

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Written by Larry David, Justin Hurwitz, Steve Leff, Carol Leifer, Jeff Schaffer; HBO

The Great, Written by Vanessa Alexander, Tony McNamara, Tess Morris, Amelia Roper, Gretel Vella, James Wood; Hulu

PEN15, Written by; Alyssa DiMari, Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle, Josh Levine, Gabe Liedman, Rachele Lynn, Vera Santamaria, Diana Tay, Sam Zvibleman; Hulu

Ted Lasso, Written by Jane Becker, Leann Bowen, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Bill Lawrence, Jamie Lee, Jason Sudeikis, Phoebe Walsh, Bill Wrubel; Apple TV+ [PREDICTED WINNER]

What We Do in the Shadows, Written by Jake Bender, Jemaine Clement, Zach Dunn, Joseph Furey, Shana Gohd, Sam Johnson, Chris Marcil, William Meny, Sarah Naftalis, Stefani Robinson, Marika Sawyer, Paul Simms; FX Networks

New Series

Dave, Written by Dave Burd, Vanessa McGee, Saladin Patterson, Luvh Rakhe, Alex Russell, Jeff Schaffer, Max Searle, Yamara Taylor; FX Networks

The Flight Attendant, Written by Kara Lee Corthron, Michael Foley, Ryan Jennifer Jones, Ticona S. Joy, Meredith Lavender, Jess Meyer, Daniele Nathanson, Marcie Ulin, Ian Weinreich, Steve Yockey; HBO Max

The Great, Written by Vanessa Alexander, Tony McNamara, Tess Morris, Amelia Roper, Gretel Vella, James Wood; Hulu

Lovecraft Country, Written by Misha Green, Shannon Houston, Jonathan Kidd, Kevin Lau, Ihuoma Ofordire, Wes Taylor, Sonya Winton; HBO

Ted Lasso, Written by Jane Becker, Leann Bowen, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Bill Lawrence, Jamie Lee, Jason Sudeikis, Phoebe Walsh, Bill Wrubel; Apple TV+ [PREDICTED WINNER]

Original Long Form

Dirty John: The Betty Broderick Story, Written by Aaron Carew, Alexandra Cunningham, Lex Edness, Kevin J. Hynes, Juliet Lashinsky-Revene, Stacy A. Littlejohn, Katherine B. McKenna; USA

Hollywood, Written by Ian Brennan, Janet Mock, Ryan Murphy, Reilly Smith; Netflix

Mrs. America, Written by Tanya Barfield, Joshua Griffith, Sharon Hoffman, Boo Killebrew, Micah Schraft, April Shih, Dahvi Waller; FX Networks [PREDICTED WINNER]

Safety, Written by Nick Santora; Disney Plus

Uncle Frank, Written by Alan Ball; Amazon Prime Video

Adapted Long Form

Bad Education, Written by Mike Makowsky, Based on the New York Magazine article ” The Bad Superintendent” by Robert Kolker; HBO

Clouds, Screenplay by Kara Holden; Story by Casey La Scala & Patrick Kopka and Kara Holden, Based on the book entitled “Fly A Little Higher’ by Laura Sobiech; Disney Plus

The Good Lord Bird, Written by Jeff Augustin, Ethan Hawke, Erika L. Johnson, Mark Richard, Kristen SaBerre, Lauren Signorino, Based on the Novel by James McBride; Showtime

Little Fires Everywhere, Written by Harris Danow, Rosa Handelman, Shannon Houston, Attica Locke, Raamla Mohamed, Amy Talkington, Liz Tigelaar, Nancy Won, Based on the book by Celeste Ng; Hulu

The Queen’s Gambit, Written by Scott Frank, Allan Scott, Based on the novel by Walter Tevis; Netflix [PREDICTED WINNER]

Original and Adapted Short Form New Media

#FREERAYSHAWN, Written by Marc Maurino; Quibi [PREDICTED WINNER]

Better Call Saul Employee Training: Legal Ethics with Kim Wexler, Written by Ariel Levine; AMC Digital on YouTube

Most Dangerous Game, Written by Nick Santora, Story by Josh Harmon and Scott Elder; Quibi

* Per Writers Guild Awards submission rules, if there are insufficient entries in any category, those entries may be placed in another category.

Animation

“A Springfield Summer Christmas For Christmas” (The Simpsons), Written by Jessica Conrad; Fox

“Bart The Bad Guy” (The Simpsons), Written by Dan Vebber; Fox [PREDICTED WINNER]

“I, Carumbus” (The Simpsons), Written by Cesar Mazariegos; Fox

“Prank You for Being A Friend” (Bob’s Burgers), Written by Katie Crown; Fox

“Three Dreams Denied” (The Simpsons), Written by Danielle Weisberg; Fox

“Xerox of a Xerox” (BoJack Horseman), Written by Nick Adams; Netflix

Episodic Drama

“Bad Choice Road” (Better Call Saul), Written by Thomas Schnauz; AMC

“Fire Pink” (Ozark), Written by Miki Johnson; Netflix

“JMM” (Better Call Saul), Written by Alison Tatlock; AMC

“Raised by Wolves” (Raised by Wolves), Written by Aaron Guzikowski; HBO Max

“Something Unforgivable” (Better Call Saul), Written by Peter Gould & Ariel Levine; AMC

“Trouble Don’t Last Always” (Euphoria), Written by Sam Levinson; HBO [PREDICTED WINNER]

Episodic Comedy

“Grandma & Chill” (Awkwafina Is Nora from Queens), Written by Kyle Lau; Comedy Central

“The Great” (The Great), Written by Tony McNamara; Hulu

“It’s Not You, It’s Me” (Dead to Me), Written by Liz Feldman & Kelly Hutchinson; Netflix

“Pilot” (Ted Lasso), Teleplay by Jason Sudeikis & Bill Lawrence, Story by Jason Sudeikis & Bill Lawrence & Brendan Hunt & Joe Kelly; Apple TV+ [PREDICTED WINNER]

“The Tank” (Grace & Frankie), Written by Alex Kavallierou; Netflix

“Trick” (High Maintenance), Written by Isaac Oliver; HBO

Comedy/Variety Talk Series

Desus & Mero, Writers: Daniel “Desus Nice” Baker, Claire Friedman, Ziwe Fumudoh, Josh Gondelman, Robert Kornhauser, Joel “The Kid Mero” Martinez, Heben Nigatu, Mike Pielocik, Julia Young; Showtime

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee, Writers: Kristen Bartlett, Samantha Bee, Pat Cassels, Sean Crespo, Mike Drucker, Mathan Erhardt, Joe Grossman, Miles Kahn, Sahar Rizvi, Chris Thompson, Holly Walker, Alison Zeidman; TBS

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Writers: Johnathan Appel, Ali Barthwell, Tim Carvell, Liz Hynes, Greg Iwinski, Mark Kramer, Daniel O’Brien, John Oliver, Owen Parsons, Charlie Redd, Joanna Rothkopf, Chrissy Shackelford, Ben Silva, Seena Vali; HBO [PREDICTED WINNER]

Late Night with Seth Meyers, Head Writer: Alex Baze Writing Supervised by: Seth Reiss Closer Look Writing Supervised by: Sal Gentile Writers: Jermaine Affonso, Karen Chee, Bryan Donaldson, Matt Goldich, Dina Gusovsky, Jenny Hagel, Allison Hord, Mike Karnell, John Lutz, Seth Meyers, Ian Morgan, John Mulaney, Amber Ruffin, Mike Scollins, Mike Shoemaker, Ben Warheit, Jeff Wright; NBC

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Head Writers: Ariel Dumas, Jay Katsir Writers: Delmonte Bent, Michael Brumm, River Clegg, Aaron Cohen, Nicole Conlan, Stephen T. Colbert, Paul Dinello, Glenn Eichler, Django Gold, Gabe Gronli, Barry Julien, Michael Cruz Kayne, Eliana Kwartler, Matt Lappin, Felipe Torres Medina, Opus Moreschi, Asher Perlman, Tom Purcell, Kate Sidley, Brian Stack, John Thibodeaux, Steve Waltien; CBS

Comedy/Variety Specials

30 Rock: A One-Time Special, Written by Tina Fey & Robert Carlock; NBC

Father of the Bride Part 3 (ish), Written by Nancy Meyers; YouTube

Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand: Building Back America Great Again Better 2020, Head Writers: Ariel Dumas, Jay Katsir Writers: Delmonte Bent, Michael Brumm, River Clegg, Aaron Cohen, Stephen T. Colbert, Nicole Conlan, Paul Dinello, Glenn Eichler, Django Gold, Gabe Gronli, Barry Julien, Michael Cruz Kayne, Eliana Kwartler, Matt Lappin, Felipe Torres Medina, Opus Moreschi, Asher Perlman, Tom Purcell, Kate Sidley, Brian Stack, John Thibodeaux, Steve Waltien; CBS [PREDICTED WINNER]