2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (June) – Melissa Leo, Allison Janney Rise; Debuts from Carmen Ejogo, Brooklynn Prince
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A truly remarkable month of change from May to June and a big part of it due to the Cannes Film Festival. In what I can only describe as the most stunning month-to-month drop in our prediction history, Oscar winner Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck), who has held the #1 spot in Supporting Actress since the 2018 predictions began, drops off the list entirely. Wonderstruck has fallen across the board this month but Moore is by far the biggest casualty of the festival. It’s a devastating drop that I don’t see her being able to come back from, unless we as pundits are simply being too reactionary to the film’s slightly tepid response. But that’s part of the point of doing Oscar predictions so early; nothing is solid, nothing is clear, everything is still in the ether and anything can tip the balance even if for just a moment. Not surprisingly, Moore’s drop for Wonderstruck did wonders for her co-star Millicent Simmonds as well as Moore’s other (possible) supporting turn in Suburbicon, one of the month’s many upward movements.
What that means is that we have a new #1 in Oscar winner Melissa Leo (Novitiate). The Sony Pictures Classics film, which has a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 10 reviews, debuted at Sundance but has yet to be given a release date. It’s not just Leo that enjoys a new placement this month, the entire top 5 is a sea of green. Oscar nominee Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour), Oscar nominee Michelle Pfeiffer (mother!) and Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) all inch up while 7-time Emmy nominee Allison Janney enters the top 5 for the first time for her role as Margot Robbie’s mother in the ice skating saga I, Tonya. While it’s still not sure if the film will debut in 2017 or not, Janney is locking down her spot if it does. Interestingly, Janney’s competition could come from her I, Tonya co-star Margot Robbie who holds onto the #7 spot here for Goodbye Christopher Robin. As mentioned above, Julianne Moore moves up for Suburbicon and Millicent Simmonds moves up for Wonderstruck. Also finding themselves in the green are Oscar nominee Rachel McAdams for Disobedience (a film still without a distributor or release date), Juno Temple for Wonder Wheel (from Amazon, no release date yet but likely September) and newcomer Kaela Settle for The Greatest Showman.
Hitting the red this month is Oscar winner Nicole Kidman in The Killing of a Sacred Deer, who also returns to the list with The Beguiled to split her votes a bit. Kidman was recently awarded the 70th anniversary prize at the Cannes Film Festival for her body of work. Katherine Waterston (The Current War) dips a bit and Chloë Sevigny (Lean on Pete) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) get closer to dropping off the list completely.
Three debuts hit the chart this month: Carmen Ejogo in Inner City (possibly a 2018 release), newcomer Brooklynn Prince in the Cannes hit The Florida Project and Allison Williams in the blockbuster Get Out.
As with supporting actor, the recent announcement of the impressive supporting cast of Steven Spielberg’s The Papers will be something to keep an eye on. Carrie Coon, Alison Brie and Sarah Paulson could all find themselves moving up this list very soon.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for June from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melissa Leo – Novitiate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 96 |
| 2 | Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 88 |
| 3 | Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 53 | ||
| 4 | Mary J. Blige – Mudbound | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 42 | ||
| 6 | Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 37 | |||
| 7 | Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 34 | ||
| 8 | Rachel McAdams – Disobedience | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 25 | ||||
| 9 | Julianne Moore – Suburbicon | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 24 | |||||
| 10 | Katherine Waterston – The Current War | 10 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 19 | |||
| 10 | Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread | 2 | 8 | 4 | 19 | |||||||
| 12 | Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled | 3 | 2 | 17 | ||||||||
| 13 | Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 14 | |||||
| 14 | Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | |||||||
| 15 | Carmen Ejogo – Inner City (possibly 2018) | 5 | 6 | |||||||||
| 15 | Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project | 7 | 9 | 6 | ||||||||
| 17 | Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| 18 | Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 19 | Allison Williams – Get Out | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 19 | Hong Chau – Downsizing | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| 19 | Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman | 10 | 1 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Aja Naomi King – Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Alison Brie – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Brie Larson – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Carrie Coon – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Holly Hunter – The Big Sick | ||||||||||||
| Isabelle Huppert – Happy End | ||||||||||||
| Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express | ||||||||||||
| Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck | ||||||||||||
| Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | ||||||||||||
| Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread | ||||||||||||
| Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| Nicole Kidman – Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water | ||||||||||||
| Rachel Weisz – Disobedience | ||||||||||||
| Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Rosamund Pike – Entebbe | ||||||||||||
| Sarah Paulson – The Papers | ||||||||||||
| Sienna Miller – Lost City of Z | ||||||||||||
| Tatiana Maslany – Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Vanessa Redgrave – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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