2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (June)
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Call Me By Your Name and The Papers have commanding leads in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay, respectively. Each outnumber their #2 rivals by exactly 20 points with both films in the top 5 for Best Picture (with The Papers at #1) an in Best Director Spielberg sits in the top spot while CMBYN‘s Luca Guadagnino is just outside the top 5 by a single point.
In Adapted Screenplay, Wonderstruck holds onto top 5 status despite falling everywhere else with Last Flag Flying and Mudbound filling out the top spots. It’s a big jump after that with the 6-10 slots nearly 30 points below including The Beguiled, Blade Runner 2049 and Victoria and Abdul.
You can follow the updated Screenplay predictions as they evolve throughout the month right here. These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for June in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang.
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| 2 | Lean on Pete | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 79 |
| 3 | Last Flag Flying | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 77 |
| 4 | Wonderstruck | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 65 | |
| 5 | Mudbound | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 63 |
| 6 | The Death of Stalin | 7 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 39 | |
| 7 | Molly’s Game | 8 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 31 | |
| 8 | Disobedience | 10 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26 | ||
| 9 | Victoria and Abdul | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 21 | ||
| 10 | Beguiled, The | 9 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 20 | ||||
| 11 | Blade Runner 2049 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 17 | |||||
| 12 | Leisure Seeker, The | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | |||||
| 13 | Thoroughbred | 10 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Glass Castle, The | ||||||||||||
| How to Talk to Girls at Parties | ||||||||||||
| Mountain Between Us, The | ||||||||||||
| Snowman, The | ||||||||||||
| Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Thank You For Your Service | ||||||||||||
| Untouchable | ||||||||||||
| Wonder | ||||||||||||
| You Were Never Really Here |
Original Screenplay, after the #1 spot, is shaping up to be quite competitive this year. Detroit, Darkest Hour and Get Out stand within a point of each other and then Inner City and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri tie for 5th. The Florida Project, from Sean Baker, makes a strong showing at #7 after hitting the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress charts this month. The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which tied for the Screenplay win at the Cannes Film Festival last month, earns a place at #8. Interestingly, the film it tied with, You Were Never Really Here (which also won Joaquin Phoenix Best Actor) didn’t gain any traction for that win in our Adapted Screenplay predictions.
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Papers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 92 |
| 2 | Detroit | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 72 |
| 3 | Darkest Hour | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 71 |
| 3 | Get Out | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 71 |
| 5 | Inner City (possibly 2018) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 52 | ||||
| 5 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 52 |
| 7 | The Florida Project | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 39 | |||
| 8 | Killing of a Sacred Deer, The | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 27 | ||
| 9 | Suburbicon | 6 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 25 | |||
| 10 | Current War, The | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 16 | |||||
| 11 | Downsizing | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | ||||||
| 12 | mother! | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| 12 | Phantom Thread | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| 14 | Wonder Wheel | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4 | ||||||
| 15 | Brad’s Status | 9 | 10 | 3 | ||||||||
| 15 | Greatest Showman, The | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Baby Driver | ||||||||||||
| Breathe | ||||||||||||
| Dunkirk | ||||||||||||
| Goodbye Christopher Robin | ||||||||||||
| Happy End | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles | ||||||||||||
| I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | ||||||||||||
| Kings | ||||||||||||
| Marshall | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| Meyerowitz Stories, The | ||||||||||||
| Novitiate | ||||||||||||
| Shape of Water, The | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Wind River |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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