Ok, so you’ve listened to the podcast. Or, you’re still listening to it. Now, behold the FINAL Emmy predictions and RANKINGS from our Emmy Experts on all Primetime categories. By ranking them we will create a point-based outcome to decide who is the most expert of them all. There are quite a few categories that all Emmy Experts can agree upon but then there are ones that have created some real lines in the sand. Lead Actress in a Drama Series is the most contentious with no less than five of the six nominees receiving votes from our panel (sorry, Michelle Dockery). Others might have changed a bit since the podcast, as we are wont to do. Check ’em out below!
Prevailing thought says that despite True Detective‘s buzzy first season that the second half of Breaking Bad‘s final season will be just too much to ignore. Since it won last year for that first half, it’s safe to say that they academy wasn’t holding out until now to give it the big award so why stop now?
By the same token, True Detective‘s masterful 7-minute tracking shot during the police raid shows up on top here. It’s also a popular place for the Emmys to reward a freshman show they respect without having to give it Drama Series.
As you can see, Breaking Bad‘s biggest competition is…itself. But with every expert putting the series finale on top we feel pretty strongly that it will prevail. And even if it doesn’t, the stunning episode “Ozymandias” stands the best chance of taking it. It should be noted that the gap between everyone’s #3 and #4 is pretty much insurmountable.
Only Emmy Expert Peter has broken the ranks and chosen Cranston to prevail over McConaughey here, a difference from his podcast prediction. As we spoke about at length on that podcast, Cranston’s submission of “Ozymandias” is just about the most unbeatable submission for an Emmy that any of us have ever seen. It’s basically the new “Whitecaps.” Unless you’re Matthew McConaughey and you’ve just won an Oscar earlier this year. Coupled with the fact that his appearance on True Detective is a one-and-done, this will be the only chance to reward him. That said, a Cranston win is definitely possible and McConaughey is no lock.
As mentioned above, Lead Actress in a Drama Series is by far the most competitive category of the night. No clear frontrunner, fumbled submissions, failed shows – all nominees have a hindrance of some kind that is enough to keep them from winning. Homeland‘s two-time winner Danes (whom Jonathan is predicting) entered this race off a poorly received season and a nomination total for the former Drama Series winner in the single digits. Margulies is back to claim her crown but after being dropped off and her show’s attempt at a creative comeback not resulting in any Series, Writing or Directing nominations does she have a leg to stand on? Ingenue Lizzy Caplan managed the only Primetime Emmy nomination for her freshman series Masters of Sex (but it did manage a Guest Actress in a Drama Series win for Allison Janney) and she’s known mostly for comedy so this will give voters a fresh look at her. Scandal’s Kerry Washington has a vote for Peter but is her performance (and show) too campy for a big win? It hasn’t hurt it in the Guest Actor in a Drama Series category where it’s won two years in a row. Then there’s Robin Wright. Before submissions were verified there wasn’t a single Emmy Expert who wasn’t expecting her to submit “Chapter 17” and in fact, we based our nomination prediction for on that. Then she (or Netflix) hit us upside the head with a sub-par submission of the season finale in which she has very little screentime. This put her near the bottom of most of the Experts’ lists but not Erik’s. He’s pushing forth, crazy as it may be, for a win for her. We’ll see if it pays off but this is the category AwardsWatch will be paying the most attention to on Emmy night.
An exciting category with Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage fighting it out, again. A win for Paul here would put him in a league of his own with three wins (before the separation of the category Art Carney and Don Knotts both won three times, in a row). Dinklage is also ripe for a 2nd win with a strong submission. Jon Voight (Ray Donovan) and Josh Charles (The Good Wife) are the outliers here but a case can be made for both. Voight has a great tape and he won the Golden Globe earlier this year. He’s also a rabid conservative who’s been very vocal in the news recently and that could affect his chances. It didn’t affect him getting an a nomination though, so there’s that. Josh Charles should have been a slam dunk here. Supporting Actor in a Drama has shown a penchant for actors who meet their demise getting this award. But, a lackluster submission (not enough range) is going to hobble him. Except in Nicole’s eyes.
Anna Gunn is winning this. Enough said.
Next Up: Comedy