2014 Independent Spirit Award Nomination Predictions (Updated 11/24 9:08pm PST)

The 30th Independent Spirit Awards are just around the corner, kicking off about a week before the critics awards start rolling in, marking Oscar season’s official start.

The Independent Spirit Awards have always had a varied and colorful past. Beginning as the anti-Oscars, airing the day before the Academy Awards in a beach tent in Santa Monica, they’ve become rather Oscar-friendly of late. Or more to the point, big studios have found a way to get their “indie” projects in for consideration here. This has often caused controversy, like in 2012 when The Weinstein Company’s Silver Linings Playbook was deemed eligible despite going over the $20M budget requirements set by the Indie Spirits. It ended up winning four awards. This year, Sony Pictures Classic‘s Foxcatcher is courting attention for its eligibility. Is it over the $20M limit? Do the tax breaks bring it under? Who knows, and it’s wreaking havoc with predictions here. While most of the voting Gold Rush Gang feature Foxcatcher in their predictions (based on IndieWire saying it’s eligible), there’s at least one of that’s holding off (Peter Cioth).

UPDATE: As luck would have it, Foxcatcher has been deemed ineligible for the Independent Spirits (well played, Peter) and The Intimidation Game is in. Yep, Harvey has done it again. While not all of us had a chance to get our updated predictions re-submitted, so we have predictions from myself, Jason Oaiason, Evan Kost, Kenneth Polischuk and Richard Anthony. 

For the non-controversial choices, everyone is in agreement about the dominance of the two B’s of the season, Birdman and Boyhood. They both have full GRG votes in Feature, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay with Boyhood adding Supporting Actress. In true AwardsWatch fashion, the predictions for Female Lead are the exact same across the board.

Nightcrawler, is being predicted to snag a large haul of nominations in the form of Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and First Feature, with most Gold Rush Gang members locking in votes for all or most of these.

Foreign Film is definitely a category to look out for this year. Since the Indie Spirits only count films with largely American productions, a few British Oscar contenders are likely to show up here. The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Mr. Turner all have good chances at ending up here since they don’t qualify for the other awards. That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Focus Features or The Weinstein Company didn’t figure out some way to make them eligible. UPDATE: See above.

When all is said and done though, is there any way that IFC Films’ Boyhood doesn’t dominate these awards and win it all? Film Independent, IFC Films and the IFC channel (which produces and shows the awards) are the same entity. Tips the hand a bit, no? Tune in Tuesday, November 25th at 10am PST when Rosario Dawson and Diego Luna announce the nominations.

ERIK ANDERSON
Best Feature
Boyhood
Birdman
The Intimidation Game
Love is Strange
Whiplash

Best Director
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Justin Simien, Dear White People

Best Male Lead
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Intimidation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
John Lithgow, Love is Strange

Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, A Most Violent Year
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People

Best Screenplay
Boyhood
Birdman
Nightcrawler
The Skeleton Twins
Whiplash

Best First Feature
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (Ana Lily Amirpour)
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
Obvious Child (Gillian Robespierre)
Rosewater (Jon Stewart)

Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Leviathan
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin

Best Documentary
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Korengal
Point and Shoot
[divider]
JASON OAIASON
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Still Alice
Whiplash

Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland, Still Alice

Best Male Lead 
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash

Best Female Lead
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Male
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Still Alice
Whiplash

Best First Feature
Dear White People
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater
St. Vincent

Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Best Documentary
CITIZENFOUR
Keep On Keepin On
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Red Army
[divider]
EVAN KOST
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Love Is Strange
Whiplash

Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Jeremy Saulnier, Blue Ruin

Best Male Lead
Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash

Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love Is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People

Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Love Is Strange
Nightcrawler
Whiplash

Best First Feature
Dear White People
Infinitely Polar Bear
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater

Best Foreign Film
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
[divider]
KENNETH POLISCHUK
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Love is Strange
Whiplash

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash

Best Male Lead 
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Milles Teller, Whiplash

Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People

First Feature 
Dear White People
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater
St.Vincent

Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Love is Strange
Nightcrawler
Whiplash

Best Foreign Film
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
[divider]
RICHARD ANTHONY
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Wild

Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Best Male Lead
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash

Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love Is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
JK Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
The Skeleton Twins
Whiplash

Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Best Documentary
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Rich Hill