In the Best Supporting Actress race, Rooney Mara (Carol) has kept her significant lead. With her Best Actress win at Cannes and that her film was the first seen has kept her at the top of the heap and probably will for some time. Jane Fonda’s 6-minute scene in Youth (also at Cannes) was heavily buzzed but she’ll likely be off the list by next month. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl‘s Olivia Cook (released last month) still holds onto a single vote but that could just be Long’s notorious forgetfulness in updating his predictions. That film didn’t come close to meeting its box office expectations and I can’t imagine it making any impact on the Oscars and the rest of the Gold Rush Gang seems to agree.
This month Chris Pepper comes to my side in thinking that Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) will not end up being pushed in Supporting but instead find her way in Lead. She’s still in 2nd place though and will likely remain there until we get word from Focus Features. Helena Bonham Carter is safely in 3rd place right now with Suffragette and that film’s full trailer probably helped secure that. Speaking of trailers, just one point behind HBC in 4th place is Joy‘s Diane Ladd. That film should see a trailer next week and it could push her up if she has any juicy scenes in or drop her down if she’s not heavily featured. We can be a fickle bunch.
Naomi Watts shows up twice, for Demolition and Three Generations (now titled About Ray). But, her support is thin, only garnering two votes for the former and one for the latter. Ellen Page (Freeheld) has seven of ten votes but there is also a chance she’ll be pushed to lead and Julianne Moore in supporting as the film has been a passion project of hers for years. I expect Kate Winslet to move up the list after the full Steve Jobs trailer was released just before voting ended for the month of June for the Gold Rush Gang.