As with many categories, there seems to be four pretty safe bets and Supporting Actress is no different. Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), despite non-stop chatter about category fraud, will most likely end up in Supporting. One question remains though; will AMPAS break off and give Vikander a nomination for Ex Machina (a true supporting performance) instead? She’s been getting tons of mentions and nominations for that film and even double noms with some critics. Since one performer cannot be nominated twice in the same category two other scenarios arise: she’s bumped to Lead for The Danish Girl and lands a Supporting nomination for Ex Machina or she doesn’t get enough votes for either (not the same as vote-splitting so let’s not go there) and is snubbed for both.
Elsewhere, Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) seems safe and Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) is well poised for her first Oscar nomination. Response to the film has been mostly good but she’s been the standout in terms of nominations.
That last spot is going to be a squeaker. Rachel McAdams could end up being the sole individual nominee from Spotlight since her co-stars, Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo, are struggling for recognition. Being the sole female in a cast that is all being pushed supporting has benefited her greatly. Her strong notices in Southpaw won’t hurt either. Then there’s Helen Mirren in Trumbo. The film’s support erupted out of nowhere on SAG nomination morning and it’s been chugging through ever since. History and stats are on Mirren’s side; no person has been double nominated at SAG in the film categories (she also got a Lead nom for Woman in Gold) and not had one of those turn into an Oscar nomination. Kate Winslet in The Reader is an exception because of category but irrelevant as she went on to be nominated and win the Oscar anyway.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | TOTAL POINTS | RANK |
| Rooney Mara, Carol | 48 | 1 |
| Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl | 39 | 2 |
| Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs | 30 | 3 |
| Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight | 22 | 4 |
| Rachel McAdams, Spotlight | 8 | 5 |
| Helen Mirren, Trumbo | 2 | 6 |
| Jane Fonda, Youth | 1 | 7 |
Follow the Gold Rush Gang’s BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Oscar predictions here.
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