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Even though the top 6 is in a holding pattern again this month, Supporting Actor could still prove to be a category with quite a bit of fluidity this year. It’s far too stagnant this early in the year to remain so. The test screening of Moonlight this week gave us a bit of insight into possible awards contention and most pointed to Naomie Harris in Supporting Actress. The two main Supporting Actor contenders, Mahershala Ali and Andre Holland, still hold strong at #4 and #6 this month but most who saw the film don’t think either made enough impact to end up with a nomination. Category confusion or placement could become a factor as the season goes on and A24 may decide to split the two guys and put one in Lead (Ali, most likely) and one in Supporting.
This month sees two performances enter the chart from last month’s ‘Other Contenders’ list: Steve Carell in Café Society and Aaron Eckhart in Sully and one new name altogether – Stephen Henderson in Fences. Although that film seems like a one-two punch for its lead performers it could end up being an acting juggernaut along the lines of Doubt and really score here. Two drop back down this month – Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals and Tadanobu Asano in Silence while John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane) remains surprisingly strong.
Looking at the size of the ‘Other Contenders’ list just shows how many other possibilities we’re looking at. Any number of those actors could find themselves charting in the months to come. From newly cast young Han Solo Alden Ehrenreich to Oscar-winner Warren Beatty in his still untitled Howard Hughes film to two-time Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner in Story of Your Life to David Wenham in Lion if that film proves to be the major player I think it’s going to be.
Riz Ahmed – Una
Tadanobu Asano – Silence
Warren Beatty – Untitled Howard Hughes Film
Steve Carell – Café Society
Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures
Aaron Eckhart – Bleed for This
Joel Edgerton – Midnight Special
Alden Ehrenreich – Untitled Howard Hughes Film
Colin Farell – The Lobster
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Garrett Hedlund – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Jack Huston – The Yellow Birds
Jack O’Connell – HHhH
Edgar Ramirez – Gold
Jeremy Renner – Story of Your Life
Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
J.K. Simmons – La La Land
Channing Tatum – Hail Caesar!
Chris Tucker – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
David Wenham – Lion
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in other Oscar categories here:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING