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As we saw with Best Picture and Best Director, we see in Best Actor for Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation). He was #1 last month and now he’s down to #7 and barely hanging on. But again, these predictions for him and his film are purely reactions and gut feelings based on August and could change if the tide rolls back to his favor at Toronto and by the film’s release in October.
That makes two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington (Fences) our new #1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) is solidly at #2 with a fantastic reception at Telluride last week and Andrew Garfield (Silence) holds on despite still very little to go on.
Ryan Gosling moves up one (and a big 15 points) to #4 on the strength of La La Land‘s Venice and Telluride response. Even though he’s taken a back seat to his co-star Emma Stone in reviews he’s in a very good position now. Joel Edgerton (Loving) falls to #5 with only half of the Gold Rush Gang even giving him votes. Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) also has half of the GRG on his side but all with #5 placements.
Bryan Cranston (Wakefield) seemed like a potential spoiler to the race but after the film’s Telluride reviews were anything but glowing and no studio bit, he’s very much out of the race now. Same goes for Miles Teller in Bleed for This. The main push for current Best Picture-winning distributor Open Road Films received some pretty mixed reviews at Telluride and even with Teller getting good notices it’s probably not going to be enough for the young actor to break through.
Michael Keaton in The Founder and Matthew McConaughey in Gold continue to be bubbling under possibilities if The Weinstein Company can organize themselves in the middle of money woes and internal shakeup. They also have Dev Patel in Lion and that just might be too much for them to juggle this season. None of the films even have proper film pages on The Weinstein Company’s main website. Not a good sign.
Jake Gyllenhaal received raves for Nocturnal Animals and he has the largest, juiciest part in the film. His Nightcrawler snub could be enough to push him into the top five for voters. Even though Tom Hanks (Sully) falls off the list this month, his reviews are good, if not great, but he’s such a notorious non-campaigner that he might not make an impact in this race at all, leaving Washington as the sole returning Oscar winner in next year’s lineup.
Here are the September Oscar predictions for Best Actor from The Gold Rush Gang:
Ben Affleck – Live by Night
Bryan Cranston – Wakefield
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals
Tom Hanks – Sully
Woody Harrelson – LBJ
Michael Keaton – The Founder
Matthew McConaughey – Gold
Ewan McGregor – American Pastoral
David Oyelowo – A United Kingdom
Dev Patel – Lion
Brad Pitt – Allied
Miles Teller – Bleed For This
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE