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Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea) is not ready to relinquish her crown just yet but Naomie Harris (Moonlight) is sure getting close. She moves up another two points putting her and Williams within spitting distance of each other for the top spot. With Moonlight‘s incredible response at Telluride (and future festivals, to be sure), Harris could end up on top very soon. Either way, it is a very close race between the two right now.
Keeping her #3 spot is Kristen Stewart (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), who actually moves up four points. This top three has been locked here for a while so it’s going to take something big to shake it up. Billy Lynn‘s premiere at NYFF next month will really tell us if Stewart is a true contender or not but right now, we think she is.
That something could be Amy Adams in Nocturnal Animals. Even though she is probably borderline Lead/Supporting, Focus Features isn’t afraid to push someone in the category they want rather than the category they should be in. They won an Oscar for Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) doing just that. For Adams, this is incredibly beneficial – it would keep her out of direct competition with herself in Paramount‘s Arrival as well as from fellow studio Best Actress contender Ruth Negga (Loving). I won’t be surprised of Adams is pushed supporting for Nocturnal Animals and I’m actually expecting it (but with a caveat below).
Nicole Kidman (Lion) stays at #5 and actually gains a few points. The film’s reception at Toronto this coming week will tell us a lot. Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), although holding onto 6th place, drops down to just four points and Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation), once a top 5 contender, drops down to a single vote and a single point – yet another victim of Nate Parker’s rape controversy fallout.
Elsewhere, we can keep an eye of Laura Dern in The Founder if Michael Keaton becomes a sure thing (which seems unlikely). Felicity Jones in A Monster Calls is getting great reviews and the film was recently moved from October to a December bow. Her obstacle though could be Amy Adams in Nocturnal Animals, or vice versa. Don’t count out 8000x SAG nominee Helen Mirren; she has two supporting chances this year – Eye in the Sky and Collateral Beauty. Laura Linney also pulls double-duty; with Sully and a scene-stealing, and chewing, turn in Nocturnal Animals. Janelle Monáe looks to be a standout in Hidden Figures and also being in Moonlight won’t hurt.
Here are the September predictions for Best Supporting Actress from The Gold Rush Gang:
Laura Dern – The Founder
Dakota Fanning – American Pastoral
Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women
Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ
Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals
Laura Linney – Sully
Rooney Mara – Lion
Helen Mirren – Collateral Beauty
Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky
Janelle Monáe – Hidden Figures
Julianne Moore – Maggie’s Plan
Katey Sagal – Bleed For This
Zoe Saldana – Live by Night
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans
Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE