2018 Oscar Predictions – BEST ACTRESS (August): Annette Bening, Sally Hawkins Storm the Chart

After making debuts last month on the low levels of the Best Actress chart, Annette Bening (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) and Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) make huge jumps, tying for the #7 slot this month against a top 6 that’s been largely unmovable.

For Bening, the rise comes off the news that Sony Pictures Classics is circling her film for distribution (there is no deal in place at the time of this piece). SPC has proven itself experts at Best Actress nominations and wins, most recently with a first-time nomination for Isabelle Huppert in Elle this year and their biggest get to date – Julianne Moore’s overdue Oscar win for 2014’s Still Alice. Bening definitely falls into the Moore category as an over-50, multi-nominated actress with a respected reputation whose time has come.

For Sally Hawkins, her rise from a single vote last month (I should note that both Bening and Hawkins’ single votes last month were from yours truly) to being a major contender fits perfectly with the rise of her film, The Shape of Water, elsewhere on the charts where it is in the top 5 in both Best Picture and Best Director for August.

With that said, Meryl Streep (The Papers) remains a force at #1 and Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) inches up to #2 on word that her performance is ‘Blue Jasmine’ level. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Claire Foy (Breathe) hold on to their top 5 status but Jennifer Lawrence (mother!) takes a tumble outside the top 5 despite the arrival of a teaser for her secretive film. Julianne Moore drops out completely after the response to the trailer for Suburbicon is met with more ‘meh’ than ‘yay’ but also that she splits her vote in the Supporting Actress category.

The lone blue in a sea of red this month is Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, actress Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut. She takes flight at #11.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actress for August from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	BEST ACTRESS	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS
1	Meryl Streep – The Papers	2	1	1	1	3	1	2	1	1	1	96
2	Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel	4	4	3	3	1	3	1	4	2	3	82
3	Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul	3	6	2	2	8	2	6	2	3	2	74
4	Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	7	2	4	7	4	6	8	3	5	5	59
4	Claire Foy – Breathe	5	5	8	5	5	4	3	6	6	4	59
6	Jennifer Lawrence – mother!	9		5	6	2	7	5	8	4	7	46
7	Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool	1	7		4	10		4	5	8		38
7	Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water	8	3		9	6	8	7	7	7	6	38
9	Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman	6	10		8	7	5	9	9	9	8	28
10	Rooney Mara – Mary Magdalene	10		7	10		9			10		9
11	Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird		8			9		10	10		10	8
12	Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker			6								5
13	Rachel Weisz – Disobedience		9	10								3
13	Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (possibly 2018)			9			10					3
15	Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes										9	2
16	Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game							10				1
	OTHER CONTENDERS
	Alicia Vikander – Submergence
	Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
	Carey Mulligan – Mudbound
	Diane Keaton – Hampstead
	Diane Kruger – In the Fade
	Emma Thompson – The Children Act
	Eva Green – Based on a True Story
	Eva Green – Euphoria
	Glenn Close – The Wife
	Halle Berry – Kings
	Helena Bonham Carter – 55 Steps
	Isabelle Huppert – Happy End
	Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead
	Julia Roberts – Wonder
	Julianne Moore – Suburbicon
	Kate Beckinsale – The Only Living Boy in New York
	Kate Winslet – The Mountain Between Us
	Keira Knightley – The Aftermath
	Kirsten Dunst – Woodshock
	Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
	Michelle Pfeiffer – Where is Kyra?
	Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World
	Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
	Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled
	Rachel Weisz – My Cousin Rachel
	Sally Hawkins – Maudie