2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

Erik Anderson November 2, 2017

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) holds onto the #1 spot this month, but oh so barely, as Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) continues his ascent and lands just a single point behind Dafoe. In all, the top 5 remain the same and in the same order.

Last week’s #6, Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) falls to # this month, leaving an open window for a pair of co-stars of Top 5 contenders to move up. Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) takes over the #6 spot (with his co-star Michael Stuhlbarg at #3) and Oscar nominee Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is at #7 with his co-star, Oscar nominee Michael Shannon, at #4. Oscar winner Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) stays at #5 but just two points ahead of Hammer. It’s an exciting year for this category as we have no less than three films with dual supporting actor contenders (Jason Mitchell and Garrett Hedlund in Mudbound as well, a bit further down). Four, if you add Woody Harrelson in from Three Billboards. The last time this category saw two actors from the same film nominated was 1991’s Bugsy when Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel both hit. Interestingly in that case, Keitel was the main horse, landing some high profile critics’ wins and precursors. It wasn’t until the Golden Globes that Kingsley showed up with Keitel (SAG wasn’t around then) and then at the Oscars. This year seems like one of the best chances for it to happen again and it could even play out similarly as it did for Keitel and Kingsley, with one actor sowing up the majority of critics’ attention but both making it in when it comes to industry and televised awards.

This month sees three debuts: Ray Romano in The Big Sick, Bryan Cranston in Last Flag Flying (after it was revealed he’d be pushed Supporting and Steve Carell Lead) and Garrett Hedlund in Mudbound.

Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World) ended any chance of a nomination when sexual assault accusations broke last week that included the abrupt halt of production on the final season of his Netflix series House of Cards and the two-time Oscar winning actor is now “seeking treatment.”

Others leaving the chart this month: Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049), Idris Elba (Molly’s Game), Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying) and Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel).

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for November from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry

	SUPPORTING ACTOR	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project	1	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	94
2	Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	3	1	4	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	93
3	Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	82
4	Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water	4	6	3	5	6	5	4	5	4	5	63
5	Mark Rylance – Dunkirk	5	4	7	4	5	4	5	9	5	4	58

6	Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name	6	5	5	6	4	6	6	4	6	6	56
7	Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water	7	7	9	8	7	8	9	6	7	7	35
8	Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour	9	9	6	7		7	8	8	8		26
9	Jason Mitchell – Mudbound	8	10	8	9	8	10	7	7	10	8	25
10	Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories				10	9				9	9	7
11	Ray Romano – The Big Sick			10			9	10			10	5
12	Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying		8						10			4
13	Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound	10				10						2

OTHER CONTENDERS
Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul
Bob Odenkirk – The Post
Bradley Whitford – The Post
Christoph Waltz – Downsizing
Colin Farrell – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Ed Harris – mother!
Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049
Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Javier Bardem – mother!
Jim Belushi – Wonder Wheel
John Boyega – Detroit
Kevin Spacey – All the Money in the World
Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Post
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Sterling K. Brown – Marshall
Steve Buscemi – The Death of Stalin
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
Tom Hanks – The Post
Will Poulter – Detroit

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.