Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) holds onto his #1 spot just as his film is about to open this week and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) moves up from #4 to #2 on the strength of his film and blistering performance. That still leaves room for Michaels Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) and Shannon (The Shape of Water). Mark Rylance’s boat rises (Dunkirk) as Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying) and Colin Farrell (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) see precipitous falls.
Those falls also benefit and give rise to Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour), Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) and Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World). It’s impressive that we have not one but two sets of supporting actors from the same film in contention this year. Every year we see if it will happen, the last time was Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel for 1991’s Bugsy, but it never does. We probably got close with Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton in Spotlight but in the end only Ruffalo prevailed.
As was noted in Best Actor, the category placements for the actors in Last Flag Flying got shaken up by Amazon when they placed Steve Carell in Lead and Bryan Cranston in Supporting. Fishburne was always assumed supporting.
Debuts this month include Dustin Hoffman in The Meyerowitz Stories and Harrison Ford in Blade Runner 2049. I know we’ve all looked at Ford to finally earn another Oscar nomination for decades now (he probably got kinda close for Star Wars: The Force Awakens) but he’s still an outlier here.
Dropping off this month are Farrell, Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) and Christoph Waltz (Downsizing).
2018 Oscar Predictions (October) – BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for October from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 95 |
| 2 | Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 90 |
| 3 | Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 84 |
| 4 | Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 66 |
| 5 | Mark Rylance – Dunkirk | 6 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 52 |
| 6 | Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 38 | ||
| 7 | Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 30 | |
| 9 | Kevin Spacey – All the Money in the World | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 15 | ||||||
| 10 | Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying | 5 | 7 | 7 | 14 | |||||||
| 10 | Jason Mitchell – Mudbound | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 14 | |||
| 12 | Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories | 9 | 7 | 10 | 7 | |||||||
| 13 | Jim Belushi – Wonder Wheel | 10 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| 13 | Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 3 | |||||||
| 15 | Idris Elba – Molly’s Game | 10 | 1 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alessandro Nivola – Disobedience
Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul
Bob Odenkirk – The Post
Bradley Whitford – The Post
Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
Charlie Plummer – All the Money in the World
Christoph Waltz – Downsizing
Colin Farrell – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Daniel Craig – Logan Lucky
Ed Harris – mother!
Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Javier Bardem – mother!
John Boyega – Detroit
Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game
Lucas Hedges – Lady Bird
Michael Shannon – The Current War
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Post
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Ray Romano – The Big Sick
Sterling K. Brown – Marshall
Steve Buscemi – The Death of Stalin
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
Wes Studi – Hostiles
Will Poulter – Detroit
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