Despite her wins at the National Board of Review and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) is still in second place to Allison Janney (I, Tonya) who rules the roost, albeit by a smaller margin this month. It will be interesting to see if these two actresses separate their wins where one earns more critics’ praise while the other dominates the televised awards.
The rest of the top five this month is the same with Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) holding on to the #3 spot and Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) and Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) swapping places.
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) makes the biggest jump this month, up from 10 to 6. Her icy cold sister to Daniel Day-Lewis’s temperamental brother makes her a very good candidate in this category not only for her character but because DDL has a good history of bringing supporting actresses along with him to the Oscars. But…it’s usually when he’s the winner and he doesn’t seem to be this year.
Tiffany Haddish’s surprise win with the New York Film Critics Circle for Girls Trip has made her a real contender and she debuts at #10. I imagine she’ll climb the chart throughout the month as that win has now given way for the stand-up comic to be recognized by other awards bodies’ already (she received a Supporting Actress nomination from the Critics’ Choice Awards this morning). She’s in my top 5.
Oscar-winner Julia Roberts is the month’s other debut, on the huge box office strength of her film Wonder.
2018 Oscar Predictions (December Part 1): BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for the first half of December from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ERIK ANDERSON | BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST | JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK | DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY | ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allison Janney – I, Tonya | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 98 |
| 2 | Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 92 |
| 3 | Holly Hunter – The Big Sick | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 78 |
| 4 | Mary J. Blige – Mudbound | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 61 |
| 5 | Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 59 |
| 6 | Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | Hong Chau – Downsizing | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 33 |
| 8 | Tatiana Maslany – Stronger | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 29 | |
| 9 | Melissa Leo – Novitiate | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 23 | |||
| 10 | Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 19 | |||
| 11 | Catherine Keener – Get Out | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | |||||||
| 12 | Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour | 9 | 9 | 4 | ||||||||
| 12 | Julia Roberts – Wonder | 8 | 10 | 4 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
Bria Vinaite – The Florida Project
Carey Mulligan – Mudbound
Carmen Ejogo – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Carrie Coon – The Post
Cicely Tyson – Last Flag Flying
Claire Foy – Breathe
Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck
Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman
Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!
Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman
Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman
Rosamund Pike – Hostiles
Sarah Paulson – The Post
Zendaya – The Greatest Showman
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