2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (December Part 1)
Call Me By Your Name remains atop the Adapted Screenplay list and really, why wouldn’t it? Not only is it a major Best Picture contender but the dearth of competition here makes it such lock that it’s almost pointless to pretend anything else will overtake it. The top four here are pretty solid, making the #5 quite open to just about anything. Stronger is there now but I can see something conventional like Wonder rise, or unconventional like Wonder Woman, Logan or Blade Runner 2049 find a spot in a category their genre is usually snubbed in.
2018 Oscar Predictions (December Part 1): BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS
These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for the first half of December in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Mudbound | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 87 |
| 3 | The Disaster Artist | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 78 |
| 4 | Molly’s Game | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 75 |
| 5 | Stronger | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Last Flag Flying | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 7 | Wonder Woman | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Blade Runner 2049 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26 | ||
| 9 | Victoria and Abdul | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 21 | |||
| 10 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | 5 | 5 | 7 | 16 | |||||||
| 11 | Wonder | 6 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | ||||||
| 12 | Wonderstruck | 9 | 7 | 10 | 7 | |||||||
| 13 | Logan | 7 | 4 | |||||||||
| 14 | The Lost City of Z | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| 15 | The Beguiled | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| 15 | All the Money in the World | 9 | 2 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
First They Killed My Father
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
We have a tie this month in Original Screenplay. Get Out and Lady Bird, two of the most acclaimed films of the year and written by their directors, rise above last month’s leader Three Billboards, which has taken a bit of a beating the last couple of weeks. Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original is overflowing with strong contenders, Best Picture likelies and highly original work. It’s so open I can see any number of combinations from this top 10 ending up as Oscar’s top 5.
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Get Out | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
| 1 | Lady Bird | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 89 |
| 3 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 84 |
| 4 | The Post | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 78 |
| 5 | The Shape of Water | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 53 |
| 6 | The Big Sick | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 7 | Phantom Thread | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 45 |
| 8 | I, Tonya | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Darkest Hour | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 20 |
| 10 | The Florida Project | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 15 |
OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Battle of the Sexes
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Hostiles
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Wind River
Wonder Wheel
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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