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As you can see, not a lot of change this month with the top 4 remaining so and in the same place. Viola Davis (Widows) is still #1 and I think she’ll be there for a while. Already a Supporting Actress Oscar winner, this would be one of Oscar’s most traditional trajectories – a supporting win followed up by a lead win – and makes sense for someone of Davis’s stature.
But what I’m keeping my eye on is Glenn Close in The Wife. After debuting at Toronto last year, Close’s film was picked up by Sony Classics. But, SPC had a very full slate that included multiple Best Actress contenders (all of whom failed) and it seemed they had stretched themselves thin. They smartly held onto The Wife and are starting to roll out the film’s campaign and release quite early. The film isn’t due until August but we’ve already got the first trailer and you bet there’s the ‘6-TIME ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE GLENN CLOSE’ title card for everyone to see. There is a clear narrative to play for Close that no other major contender has this year (except maybe Michelle Pfeiffer…more on that later). Although late summer seems a bit early for a film like this (it won’t play any other festivals) I think SPC is going to push her hard for this and by year’s end she may be undeniable.
Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk) also moves up and sits juuust outside the top 5 this month. The Oscars love ingenues and breakthrough performances and all eyes will be on the follow-up from Oscar-winner Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and she will benefit.
One of the more exciting surprises is that we could be seeing a major comeback for Oscar-winner Renée Zellweger in Judy. The first pics of her as Judy Garland have stunned film fans and the actress seems poised to grab the spotlight once again.
Circling back to Michelle Pfeiffer, the 3-time Oscar nominee is receiving the best notices of her career for Where Is Kyra? but the real question is where is the movie? A tiny, new distributor plopped the film down a few weeks ago but it doesn’t seem they’re ready to mount an Oscar campaign the size of which would be needed. The critics, as they often have, would need to do the heavy lifting this year to keep Pfeiffer afloat. It could happen but will she even be remembered by December?
Here are my predictions for Best Actress as of April 17, 2018.
| 1. Viola Davis – Widows |
| 2. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots |
| 3. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| 4. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer |
| 5. Glenn Close – The Wife |
| 6. Kiki Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk |
| 7. Renée Zellweger – Judy |
| 8. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette |
| 9. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Fast Color |
| 10. Poorna Jagannathan – Untitled Pippa Bianco aka Share |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney biopic |
| Gemma Atherton – Vita and Virginia |
| Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns |
| Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead |
| Kiersey Clemons – Hearts Beat Loud |
| Toni Collette – Hereditary |
| Penélope Cruz – Everybody Knows |
| Elizabeth Debicki – Vita and Virginia |
| Judi Dench – Red Joan |
| Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade |
| Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project |
| Taraji P. Henson – The Best of Enemies |
| Isabelle Huppert – The Widow |
| Juli Jakab – Sunset |
| Dakota Johnson – Suspiria |
| Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex |
| Keira Knightley – The Aftermath |
| Keira Knightley – Colette |
| Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born |
| Kelly Macdonald – Puzzle |
| Danielle Macdonald – Dumplin’ |
| Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace |
| Julianne Moore – Gloria |
| Chloë Grace Moretz – The Miseducation of Cameron Post |
| Carey Mulligan – Wildlife |
| Michelle Pfeiffer – Where Is Kyra? |
| Rosamund Pike – A Private War |
| Florence Pugh – Fighting with My Family |
| Gina Rodríguez – Miss Bala |
| Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy |
| Emma Stone – The Favourite |
| Hilary Swank – What They Had |
| Charlize Theron – Tully |
| Rachel Weisz – Disobedience |
| Rachel Weisz – The Favourite |
| Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians |
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (April)
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