Sun. Dec 15th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

In a year of extremely tight races, supporting actor is proving to be quite difficult. It’s another year of co-lead performances jammed up against true supporting roles; star turns that are looking for acting wins and previous winners looking for comebacks after a loooong time away. It’s changing and morphing every day and with SAG and the Golden Globe nominations just around the corner this is the last best stab in the dark.

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) might be the only true lock for me at this point and I still believe he’s going all the way and winning his first acting Oscar (he’s already a winner for producing 12 Years a Slave).

With Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) out of this category (he’s going lead, as he should) it opens the door for someone else (possibly even his co-star Tracy Letts). Trouble is, there’s more than just one person knocking on that door. If Jonathan Pryce gets in for Best Actor (for The Two Popes) how do you not put in the other Pope, Anthony Hopkins? It’s an absolute two-hander. But then, so is The Lighthouse and most pundits see a path for Spirit Award nominee Willem Dafoe here but not Robert Pattinson in lead. The main difference there is that Dafoe is a previous nominee (two years running) and The Two Popes stands a good chance at multiple nominations, which helps Hopkins, a previous winner.

What to do about Al Pacino and Joe Pesci in The Irishman? Pacino seems like the easier call but it’s Pesci who gets to close out the 3.5 hour epic and do so with some of the best acting of his career. How do you let one in and not the other?

Last week also brought a new contender in Oscar-winner Sam Rockwell for Richard Jewell. He was already a low-key contender for Jojo Rabbit but in Richard Jewell he finds himself with a real-life character and great reviews. He could find himself with double mentions for both films from a group like the National Board of Review, who acknowledge multiple performances by an actor in a single year, but is it enough to make him a nominee three years in a row?

This week also brought newcomer Dean-Charles Chapman in 1917. It’s a low-level start for the Game of Thrones actor in a film that will struggle getting acting nominations but his performance is worth a place on the chart and he begins here.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actor for November 27, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
2. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
3. Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix)
4. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
5. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Alan Alda – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Tracy Letts – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
John Lithgow – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix)
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy (Amazon)
Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell (Warner Bros)
Song Kang-ho – Parasite (Neon)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Jamie Bell – Rocketman (Paramount)
Bill Camp – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Timothée Chalamet – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Dean-Charles Chapman – 1917 (Universal)
Jonathan Majors – The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ian McKellen – Cats (Universal)
Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet (Focus Features)
Bill Pullman – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Eddie Redmayne – The Aeronauts (Amazon)
Tim Robbins – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

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