As I wondered last month, Margot Robbie having two legitimate contenders to balance in this category was going to have to begin to lean one way or the other soon and it seems that she’s going to favor Bombshell over Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as her best shot at a second Oscar nomination. While OUATIH is more likely to be a multiple contender in many other categories, her role in Bombshell is the film’s center and she has a legitimate arc in a way she doesn’t in OUATIH. I’m still thinking she’ll get some mentions for OUATIH (probably SAG) but the ship will steer to Bombshell come Oscar nomination time and I did a virtual swap for her on this month’s chart.
Also moving up is Florence Pugh in Little Women. Earning the best notices of a cast that is packed with Oscar winners and nominees is no small feat and she’s poised for breakout/breakthrough mentions this season.
That locks in the top 3 of Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) and Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), who I believe are unmovable. Dern is grabbing tributes and achievement awards, Lopez has a blockbuster and an Indie Spirit Award nomination and Zhao is getting high-visibility profiles (and an Indie Spirit Award nom) right in the middle of SAG voting and as Golden Globe voting begins.
There are two dark horses in the mix that rise/arrive this month and they couldn’t be any more different. Oscar winner Kathy Bates (Misery) proved herself a standout in Richard Jewell when it premiered at AFI FEST last week and could be looking at her first nomination in 16 years. One stumbling block though; she was submitted in Lead at SAG, which she has virtually not shot of getting. Still, her name recognition and lauded performance could carry her where it counts most.
The other, and it’s a longshot to be sure, is Julia Butters in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The 10-year old wunderkind charmed a packed SAG nom comm audience last week at a Q&A for the film, upstaging the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, who were on the same panel. With Margot Robbie possibly out of the way, Butters could be where voters move their votes in a movie they love. The Academy has been kinder to young actresses than young actors through the years and Butters could be the next big thing.
Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actress for November 27, 2019.
Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry
1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers (STX Entertainment)
3. Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell (A24)
4. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
5. Florence Pugh – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (Warner Bros)
Annette Bening – The Report (Amazon)
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Nicole Kidman – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey (Focus Features)
WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)
Julia Butters – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Jennifer Hudson – Cats (Universal)
Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Octavia Spencer – Luce (Neon)
Meryl Streep – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)
Penélope Cruz – Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Cho Yeo-jeong – Parasite (Neon)
Julie Hagerty – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Anne Hathaway – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Park So-dam – Parasite (Neon)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Taylor Russell – Waves (A24)