Tue. Oct 15th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)

Laura Dern and Scarlett Johansson in MARRIAGE STORY (Photo: Netflix)

Now that we’re past Venice, Telluride and Toronto, the acting categories are making some money moves. For some it strengthened their places but for others, they’re finding themselves falling behind.

With Marriage Story coming out of all three festivals with such superb notices, Laura Dern remains on top and poised for her first win. As a two-time nominee, a governing member of the acting branch and part of Hollywood royalty there’s not much getting in the way of Dern steamrolling through the season…

Jennifer Lopez in HUSTLERS (Photo: Barbara Nitke)

…except for Jennifer Lopez. That’s right, the buzz ahead of Toronto was real. The box office and reviews backed it up. Hustlers is a bona fide hit, critically and financially, and Lopez received the best reviews of her career (deserved) and no one, no one, will campaign harder than she will. She’s an Academy favorite too; having presented at the Oscars nearly a dozen times. She’s a brazen interview and should be a factor in the actor roundtables this year, surely to bring some unfiltered tea and iconic quotes. That Lopez would be the first US-born Latina nominated since Rosie Perez (for 1993’s Fearless) can’t and shouldn’t be under-represented.

Moving up this month is The Farewell‘s Nai Nai, Shuzhen Zhao all the way up to #2. She leapfrogs over Margot Robbie in Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (who will compete with herself here in Lionsgate’s Bombshell) and is going to be a passion pick this season. She very well could end up being like Roma‘s Marina de Tavira last year and only hit Oscar but the early (and traditional) release of Lulu Wang’s A24 summer release could find SAG going for her as well. Annette Bening also moves up for Amazon’s The Report after a quick change move from September to November positions her and the film better.

New this month are Taylor Russell in A24’s Waves, whose film and performance debuted to great reviews at Telluride and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who was a scene stealer in Netflix’s Dolemite Is My Name, which premiered at Toronto.

Taking some tumbles this month are Scarlett Johansson in Fox Searchlight’s TIFF People’s Choice winner Jojo Rabbit, Janelle Monáe in Focus Features’ Harriet (again suffering from good notices but not ‘enough’), Brie Larson in Warner Bros. Just Mercy, Octavia Spencer in Neon’s Luce and, most notably, Meryl Streep in Netflix’s The Laundromat. Between a still jockeying category placement for the 21-time nominee and 3-time Oscar winner and existing and potential backlash for what’s being referred to as ‘brownface’ in the film (she goes in disguise/plays another character – a Panamanian woman), this might finally be the year that a Streep performance in a poorly reviewed film doesn’t make it in.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actress for September 18, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. Shuzhen Zhao – The Farewell (A24)
3. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
4. Annette Bening – The Report (Amazon)
5. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers (STX Entertainment)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Anne Hathaway – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Florence Pugh – Little Women (Sony)
Taylor Russell – Waves (A24)
Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Netflix)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Penélope Cruz – Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Jennifer Hudson – Cats (Universal)
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Vanessa Bell Calloway – Harriet (Focus Features)
Brie Larson – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Janelle Monaé – Harriet (Focus Features)
Anna Paquin – The Irishman (Netflix)
Margot Robbie – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Octavia Spencer – Luce (Neon)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Netflix)

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