2021 Oscar Predictions: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (January)

Promising Young Woman now stands as the leader for critics’ awards in original screenplay, with an even bigger lead when you add groups that don’t separate adapted and original. It moves up this month and starts crowding The Trial of the Chicago 7 for the top spot.

Minari has also been performing well in screenplay categories with critics and is enjoying a late January surge across the board. It re-enters the top 5. That means drops, for now, for Mank, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always and Soul. For the latter two, it’s going to be a real fight to get back into and stay in the top 5. NRSA has also done well with critics’ screenplay wins (it nabbed NYFCC and a Spirit nom yesterday) but Soul has yet to make a dent.

Malcolm & Marie is the sole new entry into the top 10. It’s an iffy prospect but the film’s barrage of attacks on film critics and criticism may strike a chord with some in the writers branch.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

3. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

5. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

6. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

7. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

8. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)

10. Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Sam Levinson

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Other Contenders (alphabetical)

Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee

The Assistant (Bleecker Street)
Kitty Green

The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank

Kajillionaire (Focus Features)
Miranda July

Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
Deborah Eisenberg

Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Channing Godfrey Peoples

The Nest (IFC Films)
Sean Durkin

On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+)
Sofia Coppola

Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
Andy Siara

Supernova (Bleecker Street)
Harry Mcqueen

Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon)
Jericca Cleland, Will Collins, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart

Malcolm & Marie image: Dominic Miller / Netflix