The top four in Supporting Actor is feeling pretty solid, right?
Whatever your own order may be, a lineup of Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) and Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) seem all but guaranteed. The first three nabbed Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice (BFCA) nominations plus made the BAFTA longlist. Only Boseman missed one: the Golden Globe.
That brings us to Jared Leto in The Little Things, who absolutely out of nowhere, stomped through with GG and SAG noms, pushing critics’ champ Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) out of both. One thing in Raci’s favor is that he made the BAFTA longlist, whereas Leto did not. The film was longlisted elsewhere so it was definitely eligible so maybe BAFTA is telling us something.
There’s also a chance for someone who’s had virtually no precursor mentions getting in, either as a coattail or just a surprise nomination. Previous Best Actor nominee David Strathairn (Nomadland) is probably at the top of that list, and his Australian Academy Award (AACTA) nomination certainly raised an eyebrow with me. While SBC is a lock here, none of his co-stars have matched his run in any way and we know from history how hard it is to get two supporting actor nominations from the same film. It took more than 25 years between the last two and when it happened, with Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson in 2017’s Three Billboards, Harrelson matched Rockwell at SAG and BAFTA, only missing a Globe nomination. No one in The Trial of the Chicago 7 can say that. The closest we have is Mark Rylance who made the BAFTA longlist (along with three of his co-stars) and got an AACTA nomination. As a former Oscar winner here he could show up.
Another wild possibility is Bo Burnham in Promising Young Woman. The film has performed above expectation in most areas so far and likely has a strong guild run ahead of it. Burnham, a Directors Guild of America First Feature winner, might have just the leg up he needs.
The Golden Globe Awards are February 28, BAFTA nominations come out March 9, Oscar nominations drop March 15 and the Screen Actors Guild Awards are April 4.
Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for February.
Green – moves up ↑; Red – moves down ↓; Blue – new entry this month +; Black – no change ↔
1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↔ (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah↑ (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… ↓ (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods ↔ (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal ↔ (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
6. David Strathairn – Nomadland ↑ (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
7. Jared Leto – The Little Things + (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG
8. Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom ↓ (Netflix)
9. Bill Murray – On the Rocks ↑ (A24/Apple TV+) – GG
10. Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman + (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist
Other Contenders: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↔ (Netflix), Charles Dance – Mank ↔ (Netflix), Brian Dennehy – Driveways ↓ (FilmRise), Arliss Howard – Mank ↔ (Netflix), Alan Kim – Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↔ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↓ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↓ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, Stanley Tucci – Supernova ↔ (Bleecker Street) – BAFTA longlist