2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (January)

Big moves for Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) as two men from ensembles that have broken out from the pack to forge their own awards path. Each actor has also been building the groundwork for their eventual Oscar nominations in the form of critics’ wins.

While Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) remains the critics’ leader, Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is becoming a real threat. A surprise winner at LAFCA and a Spirit Award nomination this week (alongside his category co-star Colman Domingo) is positioning the veteran actor to possibly spoil.

There’s still a lot of ways this could play out. While Cohen is assured a spot here, any number of his co-stars in the massive ensemble that is The Trial of the Chicago 7 could gobble up a spot. Logic would say that previous Oscar winners Mark Rylance and Eddie Redmayne stand the best shot (they also have the most screen time aside from SBC) but Oscar nominee Frank Langella is lurking. The Academy loves a villain and a judge, and Langella gets both here.

These are the last predictions before the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations come out (February 3 and 4, respectively) and those will definitely impact this and all acting races moving forward (which will be reflected in next week’s Frontrunner Friday).

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions Supporting Actor for January.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

6. Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

7. David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

8. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

9. Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

10. Brian Dennehy – Driveways (FilmRise)

Other Contenders: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix), Colman Domingo – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Aldis Hodge – One Night in Miami… (Amazon), Arliss Howard – Mank (Netflix), Alan Kim – Minari (A24), Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Orion Lee – First Cow (A24), (Netflix), Bill Murray – On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+), Tom Pelphrey – Mank (Netflix), Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)

Image credit: David Lee / Netflix

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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